Buttigieg surges to te lead

Could change the Nov. 20th debate a bit.

quote:

Warren, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, led the September Iowa Poll, when 22% said she was their first choice. In this poll, her support slips to 16%. Former Vice President Biden, who led the Register’s first three Iowa Polls of the 2020 caucus cycle, has continued to slide, falling 5 percentage points to 15%. Sanders, a U.S. senator from Vermont, also garners 15% — a 4 percentage point rise.

Wow, according to this poll more than one out of three Warren supporters abandoned her since the last poll. And one out of four Biden voters abandoned him.

quote:

Originally posted by jon-nyc:
...more than one out of three Warren supporters abandoned her since the last poll...

I’d like to think it’s because they finally read her plans rather than just take Ezra Klein’s word for it.

quote:

Originally posted by QuirtEvans:

Let's not read too much into this. It's Iowa. The demographics are very different from Florida or Mississippi or California.

quote:

Originally posted by QuirtEvans:
Let's not read too much into this. It's Iowa. The demographics are very different from Florida or Mississippi or California.

Well, should we be unhappy at this boost?

Iowa has been a springboard for many candidates, some of whom then lost other primaries where the politics/demographics/etc. were not as favorable. Obama, for instance, lost New Hampshire after winning Iowa. Didn't stop him. Carter won Iowa and then got slaughtered in some subsequent primaries. He bulldozed through nonetheless.

I certainly agree that’s it’s hopeful, and I think he’s best-positioned to eat Trump’s lunch.

I just don’t want to get my hopes up yet.

quote:

Originally posted by QuirtEvans:
I certainly agree that’s it’s hopeful, and I think he’s best-positioned to eat Trump’s lunch.

I just don’t want to get my hopes up yet.

Nor do I.

I worry that he might NOT be the best positioned to eat Trump's lunch. That might be Biden, unless Joe completely unravels (even more so than he is managing to do currently ...). I know that some people have jumped all over his campaign for even thinking that they might have a sexuality issue with the African American community, but I think he probably DOES have a sexuality issue within that voting block. Anecdotes are just that, but mine is knowing African Americans who would not consider pulling the lever for him precisely because he is openly gay and married. His turnout in the minority community might condemn us to another four years of Trump buffoonery, national-international retreat, and (perhaps fatal) institutional erosion.

I listened to some show (think it was "The Circus" on Showtime, which if you're not watching, you're losing out) where they made the point that Buttigieg's appeal was in large part his basic decency. I think if voters are responding to that, as well as his more centrist tendencies, that may be a winning ticket. At least it may be what's driving his appeal in Iowa.

Agreed, it will be interesting to see how all the candidates play in other primaries, particularly NH. Right now he appears to be a recent third or fourth behind the usual trio. What's intersting to me is how much noise there is in the NH primaries that I've seen. Biden 18-28%, Warren 31-16%, Sanders 21-9%, etc. It's still very, very fluid out there.

He’s my favorite candidate.

We’re doomed.

i agree with quirt (did i really say that? )--buttigieg is the winner of the eat trump's lunch contest.

biden? forget it. trump will grind him into hamburger.

the people who don't like it that he's married to a man are going to vote for trump anyway.

Hadn't seen, but he is of more and more interest to me.

I know, who cares?

quote:

Originally posted by piqué:


the people who don't like it that he's married to a man are going to vote for trump anyway.

Agreed.

I think you may be painting with too broad a brush. "Old style" religious voters may be willing to overlook gay marriage in order to not overlook Trump's decidedly non-Christian behavior.

Evangelical Trump Sent by God types, you're probably right.