Ok, this the last (hopefully!) big project we're considering. The HVAC at the new house is 13 years old, so we're trying to figure out when to replace it. I would prefer to replace it before it breaks, and in particular I would hate for it to break while we were out of the country (which we will be for an extended trip in the next year).

I have scheduled three companies to come out and give us some quotes, but we are not committed to replacing the system right away. So to help us decide, here are a few questions, if anyone has any advice:

1. Age At 13 years old, would you wait or replace?

2. Heat pump vs. traditional natural gas The current system is traditional gas furnace and electric (I assume) cooling. I've been reading about "cold climate" heat pumps and it seems like that's a more viable option than it was a few years ago. But it also may mean more cost upfront. I spoke with one installer and he said they recommend a dual fuel system, which means that you switch over to gas when it gets below a certain temperature. Another installer said he actively recommends against a heat pump here and thinks they're not a good fit for this climate and are too expensive. Online articles say the trick is to get an installer who does them a lot. So I'm leaning toward traditional over heat pump, but I'm not 100% there yet.

3. Brand I've been googling around, and Trane, Lennox, Carrier seem to come at the top in terms of reliability these days. When we bought our system in the old house, we bought a Lennox, as I recall, it was fine, but it did end up being louder than I'd hoped, although maybe that's because the outdoor unit was right below our bedroom window. That won't be the case here. At least one installer in our new town said they only install Trane and that Trane is the best.

4. SEER rating The unit we bought in 2019 was a 16 SEER 3 ton Lennox XP16 two stage w CBA 38MV variable speed air handler. As I recall, at the time, Steve said going up much higher doesn't really get you much return on the investment. I think the electric company requires a SEER rating above 15 to get any rebates they offer. Anything else to consider here?

TIA!

If you're looking for security, I'd be figuring out how to monitor the house remotely (SimpliSafe or some such) if you're away for an extended period and having a responsible party you can rely on to help get people in to do a repair if necessary.

Something new is less likely to fail, but it's no guarantee. We replaced our working boiler in our Door County house because it was of an age, and then we had all sorts of problems crop up with the new unit.

That said...

Age
Our previous Lennox went 28 years. We did have some failures around years 16 or 17 and put maybe $800 into it and kept it going for another ten years or more.

Our experience with longevity might not be very applicable to you. Ours was an 80+ percent efficiency unit, not what you probably have, which I'm guessing is something that's in the 90+ range.

When we replaced our unit maybe four years ago, we went with an equivalent unit, except that it has a two speed blower instead of a single speed. We didn't even spring for the variable speed blower. The initial cost is quite a bit higher for the 90+ units with fancy features. They're more complicated and more expensive to repair, too. We consulted with the two HVAC techs that have maintained our systems for years, and they said that's the route they would go. We agreed. I'm sure you won't be going the lower efficiency route, but consider the tradeoffs (cost and complexity) of extra bells and whistles that are present in more expensive units. Sometimes there's technology that sounds cool but that isn't really worth having.

Brand
Lots of Lennox and Carrier here, less Trane, but people I know in the trades seem to think Trane is better. The Trane A/C unit across the way has been chugging along for nearly 30 years. And it's quiet. Don't know the current owners, so haven't been in the basement, so not sure if it's still the same Trane furnace that my friend put in when she lived there.

Don't know anything about heat pumps except that I don't hear of them being used around here much.

Noise from A/C
We have a 20 yo Lennox that's way too loud when it's running and when it starts/stops. Our next door neighbors' unit that is 20 feet away looks the same but is much quieter than ours. Manufacturers make various units with different amounts of soundproofing and different bits in the running part of the unit that keep it quieter. No one mentioned that when we bought this unit. Our tech managed to do some things that reduced the startup noise significantly. It is something that we'll be paying attention to when we have to replace this unit.

The sound insulated units are more expensive. Is the unit near a window and/or an area outside that you think you'd use, like a deck? Or an area that you think you'd landscape down the road to be used for outdoor living?

I'll be interested to hear what Steve and Big Al might have to say about heat pumps. Especially now that Steve lives in a place that actually has winter...

We’re getting heat pumps in NY. There are two grades of heat pump … the better, more expensive grade (Mitsubishi’s is called hyper something) functions at 100% efficiency down to 5 degrees and works all the way down to 10 degrees below zero.

I had a heat pump in my attic in Massachusetts but there, the HVAC guy recommended also ducting the main heating system with a diverter into the attic, just in case.

There will be very few days below 10 below zero.

By the way, my Massachusetts HVAC guy said that a split system with a heat pump is so energy efficient, it can’t even be presented on the same scale as a standard furnace. It’s off the chart.

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Originally posted by wtg:
If you're looking for security, I'd be figuring out how to monitor the house remotely (SimpliSafe or some such) if you're away for an extended period and having a responsible party you can rely on to help get people in to do a repair if necessary.

The first part (monitoring) is a lot easier than the second part (someone to coordinate a repair on our behalf). Being newcomers here, we are keenly aware of the "thinness" of our connections in the community. And although I've been building good relationships with my colleagues, the bad things about a dept. like mine is probably 90% of the people here spend the whole summer somewhere in Asia. I am reminded of those articles about how hard it is to make friends as an adult...

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Something new is less likely to fail, but it's no guarantee. We replaced our working boiler in our Door County house because it was of an age, and then we had all sorts of problems crop up with the new unit.

Indeed, this is something to keep in mind. And all the articles I'm reading online (and comments in places like reddit) all say that older equipment was more reliable and longer lasting and newer equipment less so. :/

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Age
Our previous Lennox went 28 years. We did have some failures around years 16 or 17 and put maybe $800 into it and kept it going for another ten years or more.

Wow!!!

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Our experience with longevity might not be very applicable to you. Ours was an 80+ percent efficiency unit, not what you probably have, which I'm guessing is something that's in the 90+ range.

I'll try to get more info about our current system....

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The initial cost is quite a bit higher for the 90+ units with fancy features. They're more complicated and more expensive to repair, too. We consulted with the two HVAC techs that have maintained our systems for years, and they said that's the route they would go. We agreed. I'm sure you won't be going the lower efficiency route, but consider the tradeoffs (cost and complexity) of extra bells and whistles that are present in more expensive units. Sometimes there's technology that sounds cool but that isn't really worth having.

Yeah this is something I have on my radar. We really don't need a lot of fancy stuff, and I definitely want to avoid the "more stuff to break" route.

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Brand
Lots of Lennox and Carrier here, less Trane, but people I know in the trades seem to think Trane is better.

Well, considering that the unit at the new house is a Trane... I'll try to read around on it, but maybe we should wait and try to get a few more years out of it...

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Noise from A/C ...
The sound insulated units are more expensive. Is the unit near a window and/or an area outside that you think you'd use, like a deck? Or an area that you think you'd landscape down the road to be used for outdoor living?

I need to go and look again, but I'm pretty sure it's outside on a wall with no windows, on the side of the house. So not near a bedroom window and not near the deck/patio. So that's good. So maybe we don't need to pay extra for fancy quiet models?

How much noise comes from the indoor portions of the system?

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Originally posted by QuirtEvans:
We’re getting heat pumps in NY. There are two grades of heat pump … the better, more expensive grade (Mitsubishi’s is called hyper something) functions at 100% efficiency down to 5 degrees and works all the way down to 10 degrees below zero.

I hope that some of the companies we have coming out can give us good comparisons across different options, because you mention the more expensive option, but I want to know how much more expensive is and what's the ROI or the break even point? Like how much savings per month could we expect.

Since we haven't even lived there yet, I also have no idea what the average bills will look like.

Quirt,

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a split system with a heat pump

What do you mean by split system? Do you mean, not the "split" of mini split, but split in that it has the heat pump portion and traditional gas furnace? Or do you mean like a mini split with the indoor and outdoor portions?

I mean, mini split.

We are putting in a mini split in NY, but they now make mini splits that can heat/cool several rooms, on individual controls with what they call cassettes in each room. So you could turn down the heat in the whole house except the bedroom at night. Or just cool the bedroom. Etc.

There’s a potential for real savings, but that will make it impossible to estimate because you’re changing the conditions in each room.

The cheapest and most reliable furnace to buy and operate is going to be gas every time. The big push towards heat pumps is to help with climate change, not to increase efficiency. The push to replace gas stoves is the same way.

I wouldn’t replace your Trane system. Its high class equipment and likely has many more years of life ahead of it. What I would do is have someone out to service both the furnace and the condenser (air conditioner) and go on from there.

Theres probably a sticker on the furnace for the guy who has been servicing it.

We thought like you and replaced a 25 year old gas and heat pump system because I didn’t want to wait until it was an emergency. The new one failed the first night - bad batch of boards. I don’t think you are close to replacement at 13 years.

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Originally posted by QuirtsEvans:
mini split

We always had mini splits in Japan, they're super nice! I wouldn't want to put them in the current house though, since it's ducted and everything.

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Originally posted by Steve Miller:
The cheapest and most reliable furnace to buy and operate is going to be gas every time. The big push towards heat pumps is to help with climate change, not to increase efficiency. The push to replace gas stoves is the same way.

Ahh, well helping with climate change is certainly something I'm interested in, but not if it's going to cost me double and not have any savings on monthly bills.

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I wouldn’t replace your Trane system. Its high class equipment and likely has many more years of life ahead of it. What I would do is have someone out to service both the furnace and the condenser (air conditioner) and go on from there.

Theres probably a sticker on the furnace for the guy who has been servicing it.

Well, I think Mr. SK will like how you think! There is info about the servicer, so we can have them come up for routine maintenance.

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Originally posted by Mikhailoh:
We thought like you and replaced a 25 year old gas and heat pump system because I didn’t want to wait until it was an emergency. The new one failed the first night - bad batch of boards. I don’t think you are close to replacement at 13 years.

OMG that's awful! What brand did you install? Do you still have it and it's working ok now?

Anyway, I'm getting the message that replacing is probably premature.

We'll see how it does with cooling and humidity control.. and we'll see what the different companies quote us (since they're already on our calendars) and then go from there.

If you have the same person/company who has been doing the servicing come in to do this year's check, you could probably ask him for prior maintenance records, if the previous owner didn't leave them behind. Sometimes they're in a plastic sleeve attached to or near the furnace. So if the blower motor or some boards have already been replaced, you'll know they are newer than the whole unit.

When our unit got to be about 15 years old, we asked our tech, "so you service these models all the time. What's likely to go, and when?" He named a couple of things and they happened right on schedule, probably a year later and then another problem the year after that. Once those were done, he predicted it would go another ten years, which it did.

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If you have the same person who has been doing the servicing come in to do this year's check, you could probably ask him for prior maintenance records.

Great idea, we'll definitely do this!

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1. Age At 13 years old, would you wait or replace?

Personally, I would wait. Their life spans are said to be 15 to 25 years. Of course, you can't know the history of the unit, and no one can predict the future. But I don't like to fix things that aren't broken so I'd wait.

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2. Heat pump vs. traditional natural gas

I would consider a heat pump here but only because I also burn wood. I wouldn't do it if I didn't have the wood stove. But since the wood stove heats the house, I have no intention of adding a heat pump. Depending on where you are, gas might provide more perceptible heat. AC is just not necessary up here, and ventilation was part of the design of the house.

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But I don't like to fix things that aren't broken so I'd wait.

I am on the fence about this. Because I prefer to avoid emergencies and disruptions, so I want to fix/replace things before they break.

For example, I think we’re going to replace the water heater because it’s 21 years old.

But this thread has mostly convinced me to wait on the hvac. I’m going to try to get info about what kinds of repair/service its had so far, and I’m going to get the quotes so I have an idea of the pricing.

And then I’m going to see how we do during the summer.

Oh and I’m probably not going to consider a heat pump.

As to your other comments, Bernard, it really underscores how the region impacts what’s needed, doesn’t it! We wouldn’t be able to survive without an air conditioner.

Also, we don’t have a fireplace at the new house — which I was actually quite happy about because we wouldn’t use it, which means it would just take up valuable wall space.

While we were house hunting, a lot of times I’d see a house and the fireplace would be right where I’d want the piano to go, and because of the fireplace and other layout details, there wasn’t a good spot for the piano.