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The July 4 holiday weekend usually means cookouts and big gatherings in Texas, but right now, the state is facing a public health catastrophe.

Hospitals in Dallas and Houston are nearing ICU capacity as the number of COVID-19 cases spikes across the state. The death toll from the virus is up 50% from a month ago.

It did not begin like this. Texas had lower COVID-19 rates and case counts than many other large states through most of the spring.

What happened, and what can be done to turn it around now? As Gov. Greg Abbott halts plans to further reopen the economy, orders bars closed and limits large gatherings, the answers to both of those questions may hold lessons for other states.

As public health researchers and professors at Texas A&M University, we have been monitoring the shifting dynamics of the disease’s spread to help county and state officials plan for increasing health care and other needs related to COVID-19.