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Originally posted by ShiroKuro:
Sorry to hear this! Hope it stays mild and resolved quickly!

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The impact of these striking differences [in spike mutations] will be immune escape—that is more difficult for our immune response to recognize this variant even with prior vaccinations, boosters, and infections—because it is new and different. It’s still SARS-CoV-2 so we have build some immunity, especially via our cellular T-cell system that is less sensitive to variants. But the rapid ability to neutralize the virus depends on antibodies, and the levels of those neutralizing antibodies are bound to be much lower against BA.2.86 than versions of the virus we have previously been espied to or immunized against. Also to note, the burden of new mutations for BA.2.86 is not confined to the spike and is seen broadly across other components of the virus.

The XBB.1.5 update booster would have been quite useful because it matches up pretty well to EG.5 and FL.1.5.1 (gaining in the US) with only a few mutations that differ, but it isn’t likely to be as helpful against BA.2.86. If BA.2.86 takes off, it will be a real test of how good our T-cell response can rev up to meet the challenge.

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How infectious is BA.2.86?
That’s what we don’t know yet and is the key to how this will play out.

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Chasing Variants Doesn’t Work Well
The strategy of picking a spike variant for the mRNA booster at one point in time and making that at scale, going through regulatory approval, and then for it to be given 3 or more months later is far from optimal, as the BA.2.86 story reinforces. By the time the XBB.1.5 monovalent booster shot is ready in mid-September we may already be facing BA.2.86’s rise. We desperately need to pursue a variant-proof vaccine and there are over 50 candidate templates from broad neutralizing antibodies that academic labs have published over the last couple of years.

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At the moment there’s no reason for alarm. The current wavelet in the US (which could certainly pick up steam) is not likely driven by the XBB descendants of EG.5.1 or FL.1.5.1. We know well the mitigating factors that work against all respiratory viruses. What we’ll see in the weeks ahead is whether BA.2.86 takes hold or not. If it does, that will pose a new challenge, and make the “updated” booster shots considerably less helpful than what was conceived when XBB.1.5 was selected as the target.

Someday, we might use our intelligence and resources to get ahead of this virus, but for soon what will be 4 years, and certainly right now, it’s out-running us.