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Cleveland Clinic COVID vaccine study
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Has Achieved Nirvana
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posted
I saw a couple of articles that highlighted some interesting results from a Cleveland Clinic study of the effectiveness of the bivalent vaccine. It was published at medRxiv recently, so it hasn't been peer-reviewed yet...

The weird results (text quoted is from the study, not any articles):

quote:
The multivariable analyses also found that, the more recent the last prior COVID-19 episode was the lower the risk of COVID-19, and that the greater the number of vaccine doses previously received the higher the risk of COVID-19.


quote:
The evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus necessitates a more nuanced approach to assessing the potential impact of vaccination than when the original vaccines were developed. Additional factors beyond vaccine effectiveness need to be considered. The association of increased risk of COVID-19 with higher numbers of prior vaccine doses in our study, was unexpected


quote:
This is not the only study to find a possible association with more prior vaccine doses and higher risk of COVID-19. A large study found that those who had an Omicron variant infection after previously receiving three doses of vaccine had a higher risk of reinfection than those who had an Omicron variant infection after previously receiving two doses of vaccine [21]. Another study found that receipt of two or three doses of a mRNA vaccine following prior COVID-19 was associated with a higher risk of reinfection than receipt of a single dose [7]. We still have a lot to learn about protection from COVID-19 vaccination, and in addition to a vaccine’s effectiveness it is important to examine whether multiple vaccine doses given over time may not be having the beneficial effect that is generally assumed.

In conclusion, this study found an overall modest protective effect of the bivalent vaccine booster against COVID-19, among working-aged adults. The effect of multiple COVID-19 vaccine doses on future risk of COVID-19 needs further study.


Study participants were on the young side, and there were more than 50,000 people in the study.

If you're interested in wading into the weeds, here's the whole study:

https://www.medrxiv.org/conten...2.17.22283625v1.full


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When the world wearies and society ceases to satisfy, there is always the garden - Minnie Aumônier

 
Posts: 38221 | Location: Somewhere in the middle | Registered: 19 January 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Minor Deity
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Thanks. This affirms the decision I already made about further vaccines: I am done.
 
Posts: 19833 | Location: A cluttered house in Metro D.C. | Registered: 20 April 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I found a pretty balanced article that summarizes the results of the study, for those who don't want to plow through the details.

https://sanduskyregister.com/n...ions-about-boosters/

Wise words from Eric Topol:

quote:
It’s important to emphasize that just as the SARS-CoV-2 virus has evolved substantially over the past two years, so has our knowledge. What’s true today may be proven false tomorrow. That’s science.


For me, the Cleveland Clinic study is just one more data point to be considered in a broader context. Other things I'm interested in include how the vaccine protects people in my age cohort; study participants are much younger than I am and we know COVID affects people differently depending upon age. And I'd like to see more data on protection against severe illness or death. And, just for good measure, a look at whether vaccines and/or Paxlovid provide protection against long COVID. Throw in my individual risk profile (prior reaction to vaccine but otherwise excellent health for someone my age) and it gets fairly complicated.

The journey continues.


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When the world wearies and society ceases to satisfy, there is always the garden - Minnie Aumônier

 
Posts: 38221 | Location: Somewhere in the middle | Registered: 19 January 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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From someone in the medical sciences field, in the late 60s age cohort:

quote:
It's really not easy to tell what we are doing to ourselves with all these vaccines. But I need to point out a possible reason for the results other than the one everyone is jumping to, i.e. that vaccines make it easier to catch COVID. I think behavior changes in many people after you get a shot - "I am protected so I can go back to being around people regardless of the situation". As an example, my cousin had almost zero contact with people until she got the latest bivalent shot. Now she goes everywhere. I tried to tell her that she's still at risk, but didn't push it because she was so risk adverse that I didn't know if I was doing her any favors. Another fallacy that many fall into is that the shot prevents you from getting sick. It does not. It prevents you from dying. Preventing yourself from getting sick is up to you. And I bet it is the "I am bullet-proof" behavior that many have after vaccination that causes the spike in infections. There are so many things that I would like to do but don't because I am still avoiding being in large, unmasked crowds.

I just had the bivalent booster yesterday. I waited 6 months after I had COVID to get the shot, and wonder if I should have waited longer. I don't think anyone knows the answer to that question. You can measure circulating antibodies but not the level of cellular immunity, so while the levels of antibodies go down with time, the same may not be true of cellular immunity. However, we do know that after a while (whenever that is) immunity is reduced because many of the oldsters dying are people who did not keep up with their boosters. Many antivaxxers use the argument that more vaccinated people are dying, so vaccines must not be effective ( and may be doing harm). The data suggests that more vaccinated, but not recently vaccinated, people are dying, and that these are chiefly oldsters with poorer immune systems.

I question my decision today to get another vaccine because I always get sick from the shot (which is why I picked a Friday to get it). Last night I was up most of the night with a headache, achy joints, and an arm so sore that moving woke me up. The reason I got the shot is that I am flying to SC next month to see a cousin I haven't seen in years, and to Japan in March for a meeting. I will be wearing an N95 on the planes and in the airports because getting the shot does not prevent infection, and because the chances of getting a whopping dose of the virus is much better in large groups of people in small, enclosed spaces. The data indicate that I have lessened my chance of being seriously ill by getting the shot. My concern is what else I am also doing that could come back to bite me - like predisposing myself to autoimmune conditions. I don't even know if that is a reasonable concern.


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When the world wearies and society ceases to satisfy, there is always the garden - Minnie Aumônier

 
Posts: 38221 | Location: Somewhere in the middle | Registered: 19 January 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Has Achieved Nirvana
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I was sick for a week. Then took asthma drugs steadily for three weeks because breathing was difficult.
Had not been taking precautions.
I did not die.
Snowshoed uphill for most of a mile yesterday. Downhill went faster. Expect to ski tomorrow.


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Several people have eaten my cooking and survived.

 
Posts: 25850 | Location: Still living at 9000 feet in the High Rockies of Colorado | Registered: 20 April 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Mary Anna and I picked each contracted COVID (with a bonus case of strep throat!) over our Christmas trip to Arizona. We've both had the bivalent vaccine. The combination of the two infections was less than fun, but it wasn't as bad as the worst cases of flu that I've had. However, a week and a half later, we are both still feeling the aftereffects.

There's also the complicating factor that the new COVID strain is somewhere between 40 and 70 times more likely to evade immunity/vaccinations. Who know how that affects the protection you get from vaccines and whether more shots lead to less protection. I don't think we've had enough experience yet with the new strain to be able to reach conclusions.
 
Posts: 45838 | Registered: 20 April 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by wtg:
For me, the Cleveland Clinic study is just one more data point to be considered in a broader context. Other things I'm interested in include how the vaccine protects people in my age cohort; study participants are much younger than I am and we know COVID affects people differently depending upon age. And I'd like to see more data on protection against severe illness or death. And, just for good measure, a look at whether vaccines and/or Paxlovid provide protection against long COVID. Throw in my individual risk profile (prior reaction to vaccine but otherwise excellent health for someone my age) and it gets fairly complicated.

The journey continues.


This is important to me. Given my recent diagnosis of COVID infection while I was hospitalized for other reasons and my current vaccination status (original two vaccinations plus one booster), I discussed what my best strategy should be with the doctors providing my hospital care.

The general consensus was that since I had had COVID in the recent past without any significant symptoms, I probably had a fairly high level of antibodies and that it would be best to delay receiving the bivalent booster for at least a couple of months. That is the advice that I intend to follow unless new information of a fairly definitive nature emerges in the meantime.

I do think that the commentary from the person in the medical sciences field makes very valid points that may not have been fully recognized in the population of the study.

Big Al


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Money seems to buy the most happiness when you give it away.

Why does everything have to be so complicated, all in the name of convenience. -ShiroKuro

A lifetime of experience will change a person. If it doesn't, then you're already dead inside. -MarkJ

 
Posts: 7466 | Location: Western PA | Registered: 20 April 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Friend sent me this WSJ link. I think it's a gift link that bypasses the paywall. Let me know if it does/doesn't work for you.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a...share_mobilewebshare

Seemed to be some things worth considering, but I could have done without the editorial/political commentary, things like:

quote:
The Biden administration’s monomaniacal focus on vaccines over new treatments has left the highest-risk Americans more vulnerable to new variants. Why doesn’t that seem to worry the experts?



I need to go back and look at the individual studies that are linked to in the article; the Cleveland Clinic study is one of them but there are several others that looked pretty interesting.


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When the world wearies and society ceases to satisfy, there is always the garden - Minnie Aumônier

 
Posts: 38221 | Location: Somewhere in the middle | Registered: 19 January 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I finally got the bivalent booster, and it ended up being about year after I got the previous booster. (Is that right? I need to look at my notes.. covid-era time is wonky in my brain)

Anyway, despite having gotten the shot, I continue to take more precautions than most people I know. We didn't travel during the holidays. We did attend one social function. I kept my mask on almost the whole time, expect when photos were taken and when I had a quick bite to eat. Also, the weather was nice and some windows were open.

So the comment WTG quoted above about the relationship between vaxxing and behavior makes a lot of sense to me, and I would imagine it is incredibly hard to design a study that would measure those kinds of connections.

Anyway, this semester I have all kinds of activities going on and I'm planning to travel and attend in-person conferences for the first time since Feb 2020.

And I'm planning to see my mother in person for the first time since 2020 as well.

I don't want to have miss seeing her because I get sick. And I don't want to get sick. And I don't want to have to miss any of these events.

So, I'm going to keep masking and taking as many precautions as I possibly can.

We'll see how it goes.

As for the vax, I already got the bivalent booster, but whether or not I get the next one offered will depend a lot on what we learn in the next 6 months or so...


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Posts: 18860 | Location: not in Japan any more | Registered: 20 April 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Oh one more thing WTG said I wanted to comment on.

Yes, I want to know about long covid and all those details. Is the vax helping prevent it? I don't think we know yet, right?

WTG, did I miss anything about that specifically in those links you posted?


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Posts: 18860 | Location: not in Japan any more | Registered: 20 April 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I've seen some articles regarding studies on the possible effect of vaccines and Paxlovid on long COVID, but I didn't do a deeper dive to look at the studies themselves. IIRC, there are some indications that both the vaccine and Paxlovid may help reduce the occurrence of long COVID. For some reason, numbers in the 15 to 30 percent reductions in long COVID stick in my brain, but I'd have to go back and find those articles to confirm that.

I haven't posted any links to that information that I can recall, and certainly not in this thread. If I find something worth reading, I'll post it.


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When the world wearies and society ceases to satisfy, there is always the garden - Minnie Aumônier

 
Posts: 38221 | Location: Somewhere in the middle | Registered: 19 January 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Thanks!

Re the percentage reductions … I know we don’t know the number is. But let’s say it’s 15%. I wonder how compelling a 15% reduction in risk is…


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My piano recordings at Box.Net: https://app.box.com/s/j4rgyhn72uvluemg1m6u

 
Posts: 18860 | Location: not in Japan any more | Registered: 20 April 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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It's a bit of an "how many angels can dance on the head of a pin" question, unfortunately.

1) We don't know what percentage of people go on to get long COVID.

2) We don't to what extent vaccines and antivirals affect the chances that you'll get long COVID.

3) Most importantly, we don't have a universal definition of what long COVID is. Kinda affects 1) and 2).

In theory it's something I'm interested in knowing about. But practically speaking, I don't think it's something we will have much information about soon.


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When the world wearies and society ceases to satisfy, there is always the garden - Minnie Aumônier

 
Posts: 38221 | Location: Somewhere in the middle | Registered: 19 January 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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From a year ago, but a pretty interesting discussion about vaccine adverse effects, long COVID, etc.

https://www.science.org/conten...symptoms?cookieSet=1

It just highlights the complexity of the science. We are not going to have answers for years. I'm amazed at how much we already know.


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When the world wearies and society ceases to satisfy, there is always the garden - Minnie Aumônier

 
Posts: 38221 | Location: Somewhere in the middle | Registered: 19 January 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
"I've got morons on my team."

Mitt Romney
Minor Deity
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This is going to sound like I'm dissing people for "accepting" or "believing" this study, but whenever I hear the term "multivariable analysis" in a study of this sort my eyes start to roll and I prepare to hear folks talk about their biases being confirmed.

Sorry, but "analyses" of this sort establish NOTHING but weak correlations.

It's not quite as bad as "increases in ice cream consumption causes drownings to rise," but this is the kind of medical research that often gives "science" a bad name.
 
Posts: 12759 | Location: Williamsburg, VA | Registered: 19 July 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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