The Great Resignation

18 October 2021, 07:27 PM

Big John

quote:
Originally posted by wtg:
[QUOTE] The Great Resignation Is Accelerating

A lasting effect of this pandemic will be a revolution in worker expectations.

very interesting to watch.

I read that there will be supply chain problems for quite some time. Even if they get the vaccines under control as far as wide distribution, the tolerances built to current vaccines made more possible by the unvaxxed minority will make getting people safe on a large scale a bigger problem.

We had something like 63.6% labor force participation pre-COVID and now have something like 62.9% and that's enough to throw everyhing into a tizzy. Just a minor net change but wow look at how it's throwing things.

18 October 2021, 07:38 PM

ShiroKuro

quote:
I read that there will be supply chain problems for quite some time

Yep, that's what I've been reading as well. Sigh.

I've also read about the idea that one way that "inflation" is manifesting now is not only with rising prices, but also with a decline in service (lack of availability, longer wait times, lower quality service) and this aspect is much, much harder to measure.

I just feel like we still have a very bumpy ride ahead of us.... :/

19 October 2021, 05:45 AM

QuirtEvans

quote:
Originally posted by ShiroKuro:
quote:
I read that there will be supply chain problems for quite some time

Yep, that's what I've been reading as well. Sigh.

I've also read about the idea that one way that "inflation" is manifesting now is not only with rising prices, but also with a decline in service (lack of availability, longer wait times, lower quality service) and this aspect is much, much harder to measure.

I just feel like we still have a very bumpy ride ahead of us.... :/

The word is that the most popular gift item at Christmas will be gift cards.

19 October 2021, 08:55 AM

wtg

There are legitimate supply chain issues but I think this is at least in part a bit of a media feeding frenzy and unnecessary panic on the part of the public.

"Product shortages for Christmas!!! You won't be able to get your favorite X!!! OMG!!!

We are used to basically unfettered access to exactly what we want, when we want it. We have to remember that everyone will survive if Junior doesn't get an Xbox this Christmas.

The country needs to

a bit.....

19 October 2021, 09:05 AM

Mary Anna

I think there are supply chain issues for obvious reasons. Presuming the easily checkable tales of container ships waiting offshore to be unloaded is true, we have factual evidence for them.

However, I have also read that many of the photographs of empty shelves that we are seeing are being circulated posted by trolls and that they were not taken within even the past year. Many were supposedly not even taken in this country.

I have personally only seen a few empty spaces here and there on shelves where one brand is missing. I have seen such things before the pandemic. Am I seeing them more often now? Not enough that I can say for sure.

I'm only one person in one town smack in the middle of the country but, sad to say, I feel better in taking the pulse of the country by asking individuals I trust what they are seeing in their towns than I do in believing what social media or even traditional media tell me about how things are. (That makes this forum the perfect place to try to take the pulse of things.)

It does not make me comfortable about the state of our media or our democracy that I feel this way.

19 October 2021, 09:16 AM

QuirtEvans

I suppose we'll all find out when Black Friday gets here in a month. If there are supply chain issues, Black Friday will be very different than it's been in the past.

I do recall seeing one email from a major online distributor of electronics (Adorama) warning that there would be supply chain issues at Christmas, and apologizing for inventory delays in advance.

30 October 2021, 02:20 PM

wtg

There's no Great Resignation?

quote:
Some say the labor market is in a "Great Resignation," but that term is wide of the mark, economist Daniel Alpert said.

Most unfilled are in low-paying sectors with mediocre wage growth, Alpert's Jobs Quality Index found.

Alpert also found that workers' cash piles will run out soon, and hiring will rebound in a matter of weeks.

https://www.businessinsider.co...rtage-alpert-2021-10

Guess we'll find out if he's right....

30 October 2021, 02:55 PM

Nina

Lots of supply chain issues in tech, especially computer chip manufacturing.

I'm on month 4 waiting for a docking station from Dell. I know Toyota has reduced its global output estimates by 40% for Q4 due to lack of computer chips most of their cars need and local supplier slowdowns due to COVID. There are likely others.

31 October 2021, 12:10 AM

Axtremus

Not talking durable goods. On food and the usual household items, my recent trips to the local grocery stores, Walmart, and Costco have not reveal any sign on supply shortage.

OK, there is this seaweed snack that was temporarily out of stock in Costco for maybe two or three weeks, but it has since been restocked.

As for the "great resignation", the employment statistics are still net gains on jobs. So on the aggregate the "great hiring" still outpaces the "great resignation", no?

31 October 2021, 12:22 AM

BeeLady

quote:
Originally posted by QuirtEvans:

The word is that the most popular gift item at Christmas will be gift cards.

This is the year that my years long scaling back on Xmas is paying off..expectations are reasonable and gifts I am giving are those that are hand made, cooked or vintage.

No need to worry about crap from China for me!

31 October 2021, 04:07 PM

AdagioM

quote:
Originally posted by Nina:
Lots of supply chain issues in tech, especially computer chip manufacturing.

I'm on month 4 waiting for a docking station from Dell. I know Toyota has reduced its global output estimates by 40% for Q4 due to lack of computer chips most of their cars need and local supplier slowdowns due to COVID. There are likely others.

Is it a very special docking station? I ordered one with my new laptop in September, it showed up in 2 weeks, which was 2 weeks before my laptop arrived, also early.

12 November 2021, 07:13 PM

wtg

quote:
Number of people quitting their jobs hits new high in September

Many are reevaluating their life and work in the wake of the pandemic.

https://abcnews.go.com/Busines...er/story?id=81130405

13 November 2021, 12:04 PM

Piano*Dad

Supply chain problems are real, not made up by trolls. Supply chain problems don't usually show up as empty shelves at Home Depot or the local grocery store, and I would easily believe that St. Petersburg trolls are quite capable of taking real supply issues and exaggerating them to foment discord.

Supply issues are generated by so many factors beyond lazy longshoremen at the port of LA. China's economy is changing. Production locations are moving. And surging demand for certain products and services plays a role.

Transitory issues affect different industries at different times ... chips here, Canadian lumber there, and yes, container pricing and availability too does affect the cost of lots of things from Asia that used to be instantly available.

I was talking with a rug merchant in Santa Fe in October who regaled me with tales of how hard it is to get a shipment of rugs from Afghanistan these days. What a shock! Of course, his floor was full of existing stock seemingly sufficient to last for months if not years. And if he needs to develop new arrangements in Uzbekistan or Kirghizistan, that's what will happen ... over time.

There is also a busy increase in demand for services like rebuilding rooms in your house. The instant availability of every necessary part at bottom floor pricing may be changing. Jobs may take a little longer, and cost will rise at least for a while. And if your job is small, you may have to get in the queue behind larger jobs that pay the builder more.