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Originally posted by piqué:

youth is no guarantee of not dying in office.

To quote Damon Runyan:

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The race is not always to the swift nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet.

Youth is no guarantee of not dying in office, but the odds are much, much better, all else equal.

It really isn’t about ageism. Senescence is a fact of life totally independent of our attitudes towards it. Sure, 30 year olds can drop dead, but 85 year olds do it much more reliably.

It comes down to this - he’s taking a risk, like RBG did. And just like her, the costs if the risk turns out poorly will be borne entirely by others. It’s supremely selfish.

In the early 90s, Conservative Prime Minister Brian Mulroney was facing declining popularity. It was all but a certainty that the PCs would lose the next election. Mulroney retired and Kim Campbell was made the new PC leader which meant she was also the new Prime Minister (the first and, to date, only woman to have the role). While she was very popular during her very short time in office (she didn’t actually have a sitting parliament… it’s easy to be popular when you are just on summer recess…) the PCs predictably lost the election when she actually had to campaign as a woman in a Conservative Party.

Popular opinion was the the PCs knew they were going to lose that election anyway, and it was an easy way to score points by putting the first woman into power as PM but without actually having to operate with a woman in power. It basically took her out of the equation as a political player, but in a way that made the PCs look progressive.

It’s not a perfect parallel obviously but…

Is this a similar move by the Democrats? If Biden didn’t run, Harris would be who they should get behind. She would certainly run. But the Dems don’t think they can get a Black woman elected. So Biden runs and, should he have to step down, the Democrats get a Black woman into the Oval Office. If he steps down even two years into his second term, she won’t actually get to do anything substantial because they will already be back in an election cycle. As the first female President, and a Black woman at that, she is unlikely to be popular in the current US political climate. So they can use that as an excuse to run someone else in 2028 and cut her out. But they still got a Black Woman into the White House and can try to capitalize on those political points with women and Black voters.

I know it sounds like a conspiracy theory but it is politics and I don’t for a second think they aren’t thinking this through.

Many conservatives keep saying that Biden is too senile to do anything on his own, and has been that way for a while, that all his policies, decisions, statements, etc. were all dictated by others (sometimes it’s Kamala Harris, but oftentimes unnamed staff and other unnamed Democrats). If that were true, then it won’t matter much that Biden remains the “figure head” as long as the Democrats keep the White House for four more years, right?

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Originally posted by dolmansaxlil:

… If Biden didn’t run, Harris would be who they should get behind. She would certainly run. But the Dems don’t think they can get a Black woman elected. So Biden runs and, should he have to step down, the Democrats get a Black woman into the Oval Office. If he steps down even two years into his second term, she won’t actually get to do anything substantial because they will already be back in an election cycle. As the first female President, and a Black woman at that, she is unlikely to be popular in the current US political climate. So they can use that as an excuse to run someone else in 2028 and cut her out. But they still got a Black Woman into the White House and can try to capitalize on those political points with women and Black voters.

Poor Hillary, that’s an accomplished woman who had the capability befitting the U.S. Presidency.

Forecasting the future of a complex US presidential election process is fraught. Just ask Nate. But ...

Biden seems very much like the safe choice. The twists and turns of a "vigorous" (AKA vicious) Democratic primary may throw up an unelectable person. Biden may not have the highest electoral ceiling of every conceivable candidate, and each one of us may have our own (very biased) opinion of the ceiling of our current favorite, but I'll wager good money that the 95% confidence interval on Biden's electoral outcome vs. Trump is much narrower than for any other potential candidate.

I agree with Jon on both points.

Biden will be too old. Enough.

Kamala would be a loser right off the bat.

I also agree.

So you guys plan to sit out the election?

No, just lamenting and hoping for the best.

My point exactly.

Do we want to risk a full and nasty primary that might nominate your heavenly candidate, or maybe someone completely unelectable, or stay safe with boring old Joe, who looks quite likely to beat Trump in round 2 barring some bad luck black swan event.

If the GOP retakes the WH, we can be assured that Alito and Thomas will be replaced (due to retirement or natural causes) by more Barretts and Kavanaughs. We can also be assured that the international system we worked three generations to create will come apart at the seams. Trump will quickly snatch defeat (a Russian/Chinese triumph) from the jaws of potential victory. NATO will quake and possibly splinter again. And China will be emboldened to make war against us over Taiwan.

I want the GOP crushed as much as the next Democrat, but it's more important simply to maintain a blocking force against the gerrymandered House and naturally gerrymandered Senate. I'm perfectly content with his old and experienced hand at the tiller, acting as a brake on the GOP's angertainment-frenzied mobs and their truly demented Congress-critters like Boebert and Greene.

I'm content with his hand at the tiller too, really my fear is he has a manifestly disqualifying senior moment, or worse, dies before the election and it ends up going to Trump.

I get there's no obvious alternative.

Yep.

And only Democrats worry about their person having "a manifestly disqualifying senior moment." Trump, and GOP "leaders" all over the land, say and do manifestly disqualifying things every damn day without doing any harm to their electability.

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boring old Joe, who looks quite likely to beat Trump in round 2 barring some bad luck black swan event.

From your lips to God's ears.

However, I have always looked to James Carville on this: It's the economy, stupid.

If the economy goes in the tank, the Republic candidate (aka the Great Orange Fraudster) could easily win. And that may very well be part of the reason the Republicans are willing to play with fire with the debt ceiling.

Trump is grossly obese. He will be 78 in June of 2024. His father died of Alheimer's. Trump's mental condition is not good
Will take Biden's odds of good health over Trump's. Biden will be 80.
78 vs. 80 At those ages the care taken is more important than the chronological age.