How about we have a little contest to see who can come closest to predicting when Mueller will finish his report?

Please post two dates: The date Mueller will provide the report to Congress, and the date it will be released to the public. Provide your reasoning, just to make it interesting.

I'll go first.

Mueller report to Congress: April 12
Public release: April 22

My reasoning is that Mueller has been catching or indicting people one by one. I think there are just two people left: Bannon and Trump, Jr. For some reason, I don't think Bannon knew about this. I am 100% certain Trump Jr. did. That is why Trump tried to help Jr. cover his tracks with that lie about the Trump tower meeting being about "adoption."

So it will take about six weeks for Mueller to finish the indictment of Jr. Then there will be an arrest warrant issued to take Jr. into custody. All of this will require time to set up -- you need the secret service to know that the marshals are coming.

Once that is done, it will be time to issue the report, which is pretty much written. We know this because Guiliani stopped saying that no one on the campaign staff colluded.

Anyone else want to guess?

I'll play.

I have no insight into the process, so I will make a wild-azz guess.

April 1 for the report to Congress, because it will be a brilliant comeuppance for the biggest fool of all.

And April 15 for the release of the report to the public. Because somehow, someday, we are all gonna get a look at those tax returns and they are going to prove that he's a crook and that he has never been anywhere near as rich as he claimed to be.

May 10 because my birthday is two days later.
It will give me a lot to celebrate.

Mueller report to Congress: July 4
Public release: July 14

I have no basis to guess dates, but I think Cindy has missed one other person at risk: Jared Kushner.

I don't think Ivanka is at risk. She seems smarter than the rest. She's kept her hands clean so far.

However, if we are just guessing, I'll play along.

Friday, February 22nd is when the report goes out.

quote:

Originally posted by QuirtEvans:
I have no basis to guess dates, but I think Cindy has missed one other person at risk: Jared Kushner.

I don't think Ivanka is at risk. She seems smarter than the rest. She's kept her hands clean so far.

However, if we are just guessing, I'll play along.

Friday, February 22nd is when the report goes out.

I initially thought that the Feb. 15 date for the government to potentially shut down again might be strategic. The proposal initially was Feb. 8, but for some reason Feb. 15 was picked instead. Maybe that means the report is coming out Feb. 8?

I just don't think they will release the report before they arrest Don Jr. They could have easily named him in the Stone indictment, but they didn't. I think that is because apprehending Don Jr. has to be done thoughtfully. He could hop a plane and flee to God Knows Where. If that happened, Mueller would look like a fool.

So I think they have to get the grand jury to indict, arrest Don Jr., then issue the report shortly thereafter to explain that explosive development.

Doesn't Trump himself get indicted? I'm going to say March 31 for the release of the report. April 15 for release to the public.

Then I'll go further. By June, Trump's base support has eroded enough that the Senate has the votes to convict. Trump is either convicted or resigns. By March of 2020 we've either got President Pence or Prez Pelosi.

quote:

Originally posted by piqué:
Doesn't Trump himself get indicted?

DOJ guidelines say you don't indict a sitting president:

https://www.justice.gov/olc/op...criminal-prosecution

Congress, of course, is free to consider impeachment if they think it's appropriate after they see the results of Mueller's report.

I'm still convinced that there is a zero chance of a Senate vote to convict, no matter what Mueller's report says. There are at least 33 GOP Senators whose windsocks wouldn't let them, all of whom are quite capable of publicly saying that all of this collusion stuff is a minor hoohaa vendetta concocted by brain dead libtards.

Not sure he'll go after Jr. He may let state D.A.s do that. A 2:00 A.M. federal arrest of Jr. might set off Sr. in ways very damaging to the Republic.

quote:

Originally posted by Piano*Dad:
I'm still convinced that there is a zero chance of a Senate vote to convict, no matter what Mueller's report says. There are at least 33 GOP Senators whose windsocks wouldn't let them, all of whom are quite capable of publicly saying that all of this collusion stuff is a minor hoohaa vendetta concocted by brain dead libtards.

Not sure he'll go after Jr. He may let state D.A.s do that. A 2:00 A.M. federal arrest of Jr. might set off Sr. in ways very damaging to the Republic.

There's a lot of speculation about why they arrested Stone at 6AM with guys in flak vests. I read an article yesterday that former prosecutors were stunned, and said you'd usually let the guy surrender unless you were afraid he'd destroy evidence. What wasn't said, and what I wondered, is this: if he was going to destroy evidence, wouldn't he have destroyed a long time ago? He knew this was coming. So, the best guess appears to be, they were sending him a message.

Oh, one other tidbit: I read that a federal prosecutor needs an order from a judge to do a pre-dawn arrest. That's why they hit Stone at 6AM ... not considered pre-dawn, no judicial involvement required.

You don't have to do that with Don Jr. Just tell his lawyer to have him appear at the courthouse.

And let me ask you a question. Yes, he'll react badly to Don Jr. getting arrested. Would he react any worse than he would if the House votes to impeach him, particularly with Republicans defecting? I can't imagine it.

Hmm,

For the pool I'll go August 16 for report to Congress and September 3rd for public release. Report to Congress on my birthday, and somehow right around Labor Day to tell the public makes sense to me.

As for Prez Pelosi, I can't see that ever happening. Even if Trump and Pence both are forced to leave office I don't think they'll both leave at the same time. That means whoever gets left behind has the time to nominate and install a new VP, pushing Nancy down the list again.

Just to make this more interesting, why don't we say the the pool winner becomes the decorator of the month too? That will certainly incentivise all of us.

quote:

And let me ask you a question. Yes, he'll react badly to Don Jr. getting arrested. Would he react any worse than he would if the House votes to impeach him, particularly with Republicans defecting? I can't imagine it.

Actually, no. I think he would react differently. I think striking at his family in the pre-dawn hours might set him off in ways an impeachment hearing wouldn't. For starters, anything moving through Congress happens slowly, with lots of opportunities for thrust and parry, and lots of uncertainty about the ultimate outcome. Clinton survived his impeachment. I don't see why Trump would worry too much, as long as he has his 34 redder-than-red Senate backers.

Hmmm. I'll play, with zero knowledge.

Report: June 10
Public release: July 4 (take back our country!)

There's no reason to think that Mueller will suddenly start working quickly. This will give him an opportunity to indict the big fish (Don Jr is my bet as well), wrap up the loose ends, write the report.

If the GOP puts people on the select intelligence committee then things may slow a bit, since Schiff has said he will give the investigators the complete testimony transcripts.

Side bet: how long will the GOP refuse to seat someone on the intelligence committee, thereby rendering it inactive? I'm thinking this could go on for months. We may not have a functioning committee until after the 2020 elections.

Mueller Wanted Stone's "devices"

Argues the investigation isn't wrapping up, and is instead just heating up.