We're hearing the same sort of thing from the governor of Illinois.

I think the IHME model got a lot of attention because it was featured in a federal briefing last week.

There are tons of models out there, including state specific ones, and they can differ widely in the results. I think I heard that the IHME data may not include private testing, but don't quote me on that.

I'm relying on what our governor and his public health people are saying. I think they're in the best position to know and have direct access to the data that's relevant to our state.

quote:

I think I heard that the IHME data may not include private testing, but don't quote me on that.

Our state includes private testing in its numbers, but it just recently put out information that includes actual confirmed positive tests and estimated positive cases without tests. So the number for our state is just over 2000 right now, but the public health dept. puts the estimated number at over 15,000. That's the first time I've seen this kind of data for our state, I really hope it gets some press, because people need to be a little more scared down here than they currently are!

I'm skeptical of models that call for a peak in this time frame if I'm being perfectly frank.