This will continuously be updated.

https://projects.fivethirtyeig...20-primary-forecast/

The 538 guy crashed and burned spectacularly in 2016.

He needs to sit down and shut up.

Let they whose predictions are 100% perfect cast the first stone.

On the day he rode down the esclator to announce his candidacy, I don't think *anyone* thought I-1 had a snowball's chance in hell of winning the nomination. Not the other GOP candidates and not many people in the country.

Same thing for the election.

Forecasts are made from some set of base assumptions. The world we're living in is changing rapidly and bigly, upending our assumptions.

Fivethirtyeight was actually responding to many of those changes and modifying their forecasts/odds during the primaries and election cycle in 2016. I still think they're pretty darn good at what they do.