The population bomb may not explode. If enough migration takes place, the whole world population could be stabilized and then eventually reduced before we wear out our welcome on this planet.

Big Al

The consequences of this haven't seeped into the public mind/discussion very much. China's labor force is shrinking rapidly (and has been for a decade). It will become a top-heavy nation long before it is truly rich. People see pictures of Shanghai and think China is another Germany, but this is a nation where the average resident still has a per capita purchasing power far less than the average American or European. Despite the bullet trains, much of the infrastructure remains poor, especially in rural areas that are still home to hundreds of millions of people.

As economic growth declines, the political consequences in China are really hard to predict.

That's fascinating. I'm being serious. The global implications are hard to fathom.

By 2100 China likely will have only 2X the number of people as the US.

The disruptions they face over the next two generations would challenge even the most far-sighted and benevolent leadership.

On the one hand, a nation with very few sons is less likely to go to war. On the other hand, a nation bubbling with political dissent as economic change and dislocation ripples across the physical landscape may become more aggressive as a political distraction and unifier. Russia seems to be taking the latter path.

And, on cue, Stephens and Krugman chime in ...

Stephens

... who says basically what I said about dictatorships and aggression.

Krugman

... who elaborates on the problems of China growing old before getting rich.