Goodness. The latest CDC estimates say 61,000 Americans died from getting the flu in 2017 to 2018 season. In fact, the CDC says the number could be as high as 96,000.

And there are another 5000 people walking the planet who would be dead had they not been vaccinated!

How I survived it, without a flu vaccine mind you, is a miracle.

Then again, the CDC limitations come with some pretty interesting assumptions to compensate for the fact that we often don't know when someone dies from the flu. Here's just one of the CDC assumptions:

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Fourth, our estimate of influenza-associated deaths relies on information about location of death from death certificates.  However, death certificate data during the 2017–2018 season were not available at the time of estimation. We have used death certification data from all influenza seasons between 2010-2011 and 2016–2017 where these data were available from the National Center for Health Statistics.

Furthermore, our model uses the frequency of influenza-associated deaths that have cause of death related to pneumonia or influenza (P&I), other respiratory or cardiovascular (other R&C), or other non-respiratory, non-cardiovascular (non-R&C) to account for deaths occurring outside of a hospital by cause of death. These frequencies were not available from the 2017-2018 season at the time of estimation, so we used the average frequencies of each cause from previous seasons, 2010–2011 to 2016–2017.

"There are lies, damn lies, and statistics." -Mark Twain

I got the flu shot this fall. I haven't had the flu...

Knock wood.

Forecasting is just a guess on the future, based on what we know about the past. It will never be perfect. I don't know enough about the CDC's methods to speculate on whether those methods are legit. A lot depends on the amount of data they have, the variation within, and other factors. But I can't fault them for giving a stab at it, and I also can't fault them for stating how they derived their estimate.

But it is just an estimate, not gospel.

quote:

But I can't fault them for giving a stab at it, and I also can't fault them for stating how they derived their estimate.

Indeed.

Should we not do any estimates to fill in census gaps? The estimates are not perfect, of course. We know the biases of the actual census, and the estimates are a way professional statisticians attempt to correct a known defect and get us a more accurate picture, but perhaps we shouldn't do this at all because hey, "they" have to make some assumptions. And "they" might have an agenda.

If you cannot make a decision in the absence of perfect information, you'll be frozen in place for the rest of your life.

I can't decide if that's good advice or not....

My doctor advised me to not get vaccinated for the flu. Reasons?

1. Unlike measles, mumps, tetanus, whooping cough, smallpox, etc, the flu vaccine is not a targeted vaccine. It is formulated to defend against certain strains of the flu that may or may not be the strain you are exposed to.

2. He's seen too many of his patients have a negative reaction to flu vaccines.

3. Many of his patients get the flu anyway after getting the vaccine.

In all, taking a risk for dubious benefit.

Instead he advises building your immune system with good self care, and protecting it with good hygiene. And if you do get flu symptoms, get into his office asap to make sure it doesn't develop into bronchitis or pneumonia.

Your doctor sounds smart.

My doc asks me every year, and he just shakes his head when I decline.

quote:

Originally posted by QuirtEvans:
If you cannot make a decision in the absence of perfect information, you'll be frozen in place for the rest of your life.

This.

quote:

Originally posted by Cindysphinx:
Your doctor sounds smart.

I'm sure that the fact that he agrees with your position has nothing to do with that.