I appreciate your erudite commentary on this complex issue, PD, even though you certainly illustrated how much the policies enacted on all sides of the question of vaccine distribution are indeed political.

As Quirt said unarguably "it's a matter of life and death."

No one ever said otherwise. In fact, that's just the point only everyone's life and death are at stake and to a rare degree, depend on each others'.

It's hard to argue (as some leaders have) not on the basis of economic outcomes - however much they indirectly determine survival - but on the basis of what may indeed appear to be our very lives and deaths. But what about issues of triaging vaccines and boosters, when we may unwittingly be pitting generations against each other?

Right now it's seeming more and more (among other foreboding aspects of the Delta variant), that unlike the first strain, Delta affects the young, even very young children.(Children's ICU beds are also now over-filling with Covid victims - sick with the Delta variety!).

The facts are coming in too fast for scientists to draw any validated conclusions because we simply haven't had enough time. (This is also a problem in getting ahead of the curve, in formulating guidelines regarding treatment and vaccine distribution.).

It's also not just about comparing infection, deaths and transmission internationally, but demographic to demographic within our own.

Now that the young are being targeted too - and with a different array of symptoms and transmissibility. - it affects much policy about schooling, masking and vaccination while we still don't even know whether it's safe to vaccinate them!

Besides which, the original vaccine protection may be wearing off - everyone. (It looks like it).

We've learned much of the population effects experientially, for which international cooperation in sharing statistics was essential (however unreliable).

These are just a few of the obfuscating aspects of formulating guidance on how to vaccinate a given population (and when and whether to revaccinate them).

We may debate the pros and cons of widespread vaccination in terms of the safety of our species as well as our own country, but the naked truth is we don't even know the most effective way to "be selfish" - how to protect ourselves, our offspring, even our class indefinitely long-term (if that's a tribe priority). Short-term solutions may sabotage those in the long-term.

If we aim purely at fashioning a suit of vaccine armor for ourselves, letting the unvaccinated remain exposed to the virus - virii - we are apt to be promoting the development of variants among them. Ones which may endanger us far more than the original strain (and for which we have no protection).

Just read something from the NYT that we may not need boosters after all...

The data might also be pointing to the people that got the vaccine the earliest that are having breakthrough infections could also just be more wealthy and are travelling and putting themselves in higher-risk situations.

Still recommended for immune-suppressed to get a booster, but the rest of us may not get any benefit from an 8-month extra shot.

I don't have a link, it was in my NYT email of the stories from today.

Here's the NYT story rontuner referred to:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/0...y-booster-shots.html

And just for good measure, another one about immunity:

https://bangordailynews.com/20...ackup-plan-for-that/

Thanks for those links WTG, and Ron, I'll give a read later.

quote:

could also just be more wealthy and are travelling and putting themselves in higher-risk situations.

Or could they also be people who don't have a lot of choices in their workplaces and as a result are around unmasked more?

I have a friend who teaches at a uni in the northeast were masks and vaccines are required of all faculty, staff and students. My uni almost didn't have a mask mandate (and we don't yet know how long the one we have will last) and we don't have, and are unlikely to get, a vax mandate.

So the level of risk I experience is presumably higher than hers, and then I have another friend whose uni has neither vax nor mask reqs so that person's level of risk is higher than mine.

Just thinking out loud here...

I sent those two articles to my geeky medical researcher friend. Her thoughts:

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Great articles! I also saw the 1st article and it made a lot of sense. And I wondered why people were forgetting to consider the role of T-cells. Shoot, I backed into some fire coral (feels like the name) while diving years ago, and for 7 years following that, developed welts in exactly the same area every time that area of skin was exposed to sun. I bet my antibodies to fire coral venom weren't very high during that time.

An alternate explanation for the Israeli data (from my perspective) is that the vaccine is not very good at dealing with delta, which suggests that the best course of action is to wear masks and continue to be vigilant rather than to receive a booster shot.

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Originally posted by wtg:
suggests that the best course of action is to wear masks and continue to be vigilant rather than to receive a booster shot.

Why not both?

quote:

Originally posted by wtg:
I sent those two articles to my geeky medical researcher friend. Her thoughts:

quote:

...An alternate explanation for the Israeli data (from my perspective) is that the vaccine is not very good at dealing with delta, which suggests that the best course of action is to wear masks and continue to be vigilant rather than to receive a booster shot.

Well, as Israel is now giving boosters to everyone according to the same tiers as at first, we'll have an ongoing experiment to see just how well that approach works at tamping down the virus again (including/especially the Delta variant).

My test showed no antibodies, but I think it was the test that only shows antibodies from an infection, not the spike protein antibodies from the vaccine. So I got my booster Thursday.

quote:

Originally posted by Steve Miller:

quote:

Originally posted by wtg:
suggests that the best course of action is to wear masks and continue to be vigilant rather than to receive a booster shot.

Why not both?

Well, it's expensive, for one.

There are two ways to look at it: From an individual perspective and a global one.

We could be on the booster merry-go-round in a world where only a very small percentage of people have been vaccinated.

Here's the data:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

So there are a lot of unvaccinated people out there.

Seems that even if antibodies are low we vaccinated folks have our backup immunity in the form of T-cells. And masks and vigilance add another layer of backup.

I don't know the answer, but the question is: Would we (globally) be more ahead of the game if we get more people in the world vaccinated?

That's a "greatest good for the greatest number" analysis. Countries rarely make decisions solely from that global perspective.

Yes, I know.

But I think it's more than that....and I am certainly thinking about this from the perspective of a single individual, namely myself....

People in the developed countries already have a major leg up. They can, and have, gotten the best/most effective vaccines. They can afford to buy masks, and they're willing to be careful. Many can work safely from home.

There are a lot of people who have none of those choices.

That makes me think about whether I really need that booster right now just because I can get it.

quote:

Originally posted by wtg:
Yes, I know.

But I think it's more than that....and I am certainly thinking about this from the perspective of a single individual, namely myself....

People in the developed countries already have a major leg up. They can, and have, gotten the best/most effective vaccines. They can afford to buy masks, and they're willing to be careful. Many can work safely from home.

There are a lot of people who have none of those choices.

That makes me think about whether I really need that booster right now just because I can get it.

The other part of the analysis is whether your decision not to get a booster would actually result in that shot being available to a non-U.S. person.

I can let my thinking be known, and act according to what I believe.

I can't control the larger outcome, and I'm ok with that.