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Has Achieved Nirvana |
Nate, despite Steve’s disdain, now is acknowledging a rising chance of a contested convention. He’s putting it at 33%. I think it might be higher, particularly if Biden fades away quickly. Delegates from last night, which is what matters: Bernie 9, Pete 9, Amy 6. If the convention looks like that overall, it’ll get very interesting. Side note: there appears to be a reasonably high correlation between pundits I think are smart and worth listening to and those Steve thinks are worthless and should go away, | |||
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| Has Achieved Nirvana |
Oh, and based on recent statements, I wouldn’t be shocked if, when Warren drops out, she throws her support to Klobuchar. (Whose speech last night was great and worth listening to. “I’m Amy Klobuchar, and I’m going to beat Donald Trump!”) | |||
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Has Achieved Nirvana |
That would be the first thing she ever did as a candidate that I would have respect for. Lol
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| Has Achieved Nirvana |
She's made a number of positive comments about Amy recently, including a "girl power" kind of remark last night. | |||
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| "I've got morons on my team." Mitt Romney Minor Deity  |
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| Pinta & the Santa Maria Has Achieved Nirvana  |
It's dangerous to overinterpret 2 caucus/primary results, but it seems like things are shaking out pretty much as expected: a clear distinction between left-ish candidates (where Sanders has prevailed over Warren) and more "centrist" candidates (where Klobuchar and Buttigieg are the last 2 standing). Will be interesting to see what happens on Super Tuesday when Bloomberg shows up. IMO, Sanders has won the Sanders/Warren race, but it's still unclear what's going to happen with Buttigieg/Klobuchar. | |||
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Has Achieved Nirvana |
Fitting. LOL. | |||
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Has Achieved Nirvana |
Not surprising. Pundits love the whole horse race excitement thing.
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| Has Achieved Nirvana |
Believe as you like, but if Nate says Klobuchar will win 40 states I recommend you go out and vote anyway, just in case he's making stuff up. Like he did last time.
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| Has Achieved Nirvana |
There is a difference between making stuff up and being wrong. Polling is an inexact science, like weather forecasting. (And like most kinds of extrapolation.) I'm quite sure that, despite the imprecision, you check the weather forecast sometimes, even knowing that weather forecasters sometimes get it horribly wrong. | |||
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| Has Achieved Nirvana |
Also in 2016 there was a lot of preference falsification due to the perceived stigma of being a trump voter. He outperformed his polls.
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Minor Deity |
He will this year too. Wait and see.
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| Has Achieved Nirvana |
I can imagine that
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| Has Achieved Nirvana |
Imagine if a month ago someone told you Amy Klobuchar would win more votes in NH than Warren and Biden combined.
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| Never Offline |
Interesting choice of words. Why "perceived stigma" and not just "stigma"? | |||
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