Read the thread

https://twitter.com/davidfrum/...NGe2Qfo1o4OxEhbWjmGQ

Good list!

Frum makes good points. I have a few questions, however.

The stuff about Finland and Sweden ... yeah, people have been talking about that for weeks. But watch that discussion start to die down as soon as the the conflict begins to abate. Ditto for western "resolve" and skyrocketing military spending. I suspect Russia has provoked a big change, but perhaps not as large and permanent as Frum hopes. I do think Europe will rethink energy, and that won't be in Russia's long term favor.

I'll also wait a bit before deciding that Russia's military power is collapsing. We'll just have to see what they're doing with all of this repositioning that the western media is joking and meme-ing about .. you know, all the stuff about "advancing backward." We have indeed seen the corrupt heart of the Russian military and its logistical ineptitude, but Putin still has overwhelming numbers just about anywhere his military chooses to concentrate force. They can do a lot more damage to Ukrainian cities and infrastructure to wear down Zelenskyy's resolve before trying to strike a deal.

I'm thinking the "deal" Frum posits (taking the L) is less than Putin's minimum willingness to accept, so if Ukraine pushes for that kind of maximalism, "the punishment will continue until morale improves."

Frum acknowledges as much in the final post ...

quote:

But of course they won't take the L. They will keep fighting, hoping to sustain the terror of Russian might and power - until either that power utterly collapses or they back themselves into threatening nuclear war unless somebody else rescues them from self-wrought catastrophe

Not a hopeful thought. There doesn't seem to be a feasible off ramp at present.

As for reparations, I think the US should simply transfer over to Ukraine the 6.6% of Russian reserves that are tied up at the Fed. Legality be damned. Just do it. Tell the Russians that all those T-Bills that we owed to them are now owed to Kyiv instead. Kyiv could then sell them on the market for hard cash to pay for reconstruction and for compensating families that have lost property and lives.

That's around 40 billion dollars. It's a start. Encourage other western central banks to do the same and we're up to several hundred billion. The Russians will keep their gold (held in Moscow) and their reserve assets held by nations like China and India.

quote:

Originally posted by Piano*Dad:
As for reparations, I think the US should simply transfer over to Ukraine the 6.6% of Russian reserves that are tied up at the Fed. Legality be damned. Just do it. Tell the Russians that all those T-Bills that we owed to them are now owed to Kyiv instead. Kyiv could then sell them on the market for hard cash to pay for reconstruction and for compensating families that have lost property and lives.

That's around 40 billion dollars. It's a start. Encourage other western central banks to do the same and we're up to several hundred billion. The Russians will keep their gold (held in Moscow) and their reserve assets held by nations like China and India.

That makes too much sense. Politicians will not do it.

Ukrainian war porn ...

... supports Frum's point about the global discrediting of the Russian military.