Michael Duffy in the Washington Post

Not long ago, it would have been hard to imagine that a Japanese government would choose to double its defense budget. Yet that’s been Tokyo’s clear direction since mid-December, another sign that democratic governments in the Pacific are taking unexpected steps to place a check on the People’s Republic of China.

Post columnist David Ignatius explains in a new column what galvanized Tokyo — among other things, a series of risky joint flights last year by Chinese and Russian aircraft over the Sea of Japan — and notes that the development “moves Japan from reliance on its own soft power and U.S. weapons to a real military partnership. And it redraws the security map, framing a NATO-like alliance of containment in the Indo-Pacific as well as the Atlantic.”

The pivot was welcomed by the Biden White House, which will supply hundreds of cruise missiles to Tokyo (and hosted Prime Minister Fumio Kishida for a visit on Friday). With this new partnership comes new risks. “China is in the early stages of what might be the biggest military buildup in history,” David writes. “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine effectively ended the post-Cold War era. Japan is reacting to those developments rationally. But beware: As the global order frays, the chain of action and reaction is only beginning.”