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A gauge of U.S. manufacturing from the Institute for Supply Management showed the sector contracted in August, its first decline since 2016.

The ISM U.S. manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 49.1% in August, the lowest reading in more than three years. Any reading below 50% signals a contraction.

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President Donald Trump wanted to double tariff rates on Chinese goods last month after Beijing’s latest retaliation in a boiling trade war before settling on a smaller increase, three sources told CNBC.

The president was outraged after he learned Aug. 23 that China had formalized plans to slap duties on $75 billion in U.S. products in response to new tariffs from Washington on Sept. 1. His initial reaction, communicated to aides on a White House trade call held that day, was to suggest doubling existing tariffs, according to three people briefed on the matter.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer then enlisted multiple CEOs to call the president and warn him about the impact such a move would have on the stock market and the economy.

He settled on a 5% hike in tariff rates on about $550 billion in Chinese products, which he announced in an Aug. 23 tweet after the market close.

In the following days, both Mnuchin and White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham said Trump’s only regret was not raising tariffs higher.

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The global economy has become increasingly fragile and uncertain, with growth slowing and downside risks continuing to mount, according to the OECD’s latest Interim Economic Outlook.

Economic prospects are weakening for both advanced and emerging economies, and global growth could get stuck at persistently low levels without firm policy action from governments, according to the Outlook.

Escalating trade conflicts are taking an increasing toll on confidence and investment, adding to policy uncertainty, aggravating risks in financial markets and endangering already weak growth prospects worldwide. The OECD projects that the global economy will grow by 2.9% in 2019 and 3% in 2020 - the weakest annual growth rates since the financial crisis, with downside risks continuing to mount.

The Outlook covers all G20 economies, and includes downward revisions to projections from the previous Economic Outlook in May 2019 for almost all countries, particularly those most exposed to the decline in global trade and investment that has set in this year.

The Outlook identifies the trade conflicts as the principal factor undermining confidence, growth and job creation across the world economy, and underlines that continuation of trade restrictions and political uncertainty could bring additional adverse effects. While solid consumer demand has supported service sector output to date, persistent weakness in manufacturing sectors and continuing trade tensions could weaken employment growth, household income and spending.

Substantial uncertainty persists about the timing and nature of the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union, particularly as concerns a possible no-deal exit which could push the UK into recession in 2020 and lead to sectoral disruptions in Europe. Other risks - including the overall slowdown in the Chinese economy and significant financial market vulnerabilities from the tension between slowing growth, high debt and deteriorating credit quality – are also weighing on future growth.



“The global economy is facing increasingly serious headwinds and slow growth is becoming worryingly entrenched,” said OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone. “The uncertainty provoked by the continuing trade tensions has been long-lasting, reducing activity worldwide and jeopardising our economic future. Governments need to seize the opportunity afforded by today’s low interest rates to renew investment in infrastructure and promote the economy of the future,” Ms Boone said.

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U.S. retail sales fell for the first time in seven months in September, raising fears that a slowdown in the American manufacturing sector could be starting to bleed into the consumer side of the economy.

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that retail sales dropped 0.3% last month as households slashed spending on building materials, online purchases and especially automobiles. The decline was the first since February.

Data for August was revised up to show retail sales gaining 0.6% instead of 0.4% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales would climb 0.3% in September

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Last month’s drop and August’s unedited gain in core sales hint at a marked slowdown in consumer spending in the third quarter that economists had been anticipating after a surge in the prior quarter. Consumption, which comprises about 66% of the U.S. GDP activity, increased at a 4.6% annualized rate in the second quarter, the most in 1½ years....

“The drop back in retail sales in September was partly driven by a price-related fall back in gasoline prices, but the fact that underlying control group retail sales were unchanged provides another clear sign that consumption growth is slowing,” wrote Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

“We think real consumption rose by 2.5% annualised in the third quarter, down from 4.2% rise in the second, with overall GDP growth slowing to just 1.5% annualised, from 2.0%,” he added.

Receipts at clothing stores rose by 1.3%, according to the government’s report, while furniture sales climbed by 0.6%. Sales at restaurants and bars gained 0.2%.

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Originally posted by wtg:

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“We think real consumption rose by 2.5% annualised
Receipts at clothing stores rose by 1.3%, according to the government’s report, while furniture sales climbed by 0.6%. Sales at restaurants and bars gained 0.2%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/1...-september-2019.html