07 August 2020, 11:35 AM
Piano*DadAllan Lichtman has Spoken!
Trump is on his way out ... One can only hope.
07 August 2020, 01:21 PM
jon-nycCan we just laugh at this?
quote:
But Professor Lichtman’s record goes much deeper. In 1980, he developed a presidential prediction model that retrospectively accounted for 120 years of U.S. election history.
And the whole idea of curve fitting some variables across a couple dozen elections and thinking you can predict the future?
But I sure hope he's right.
07 August 2020, 01:42 PM
Piano*DadI couldn't stop laughing (quietly) as he intoned -- with a cryptic smile -- about this or that factor as true or false. Each factor was itself not always a simple yes/no choice. Well, "primary challenger" is binary, but even things like "third party" are in the eye of the beholder. And the economy stuff and "major policy change" are totally squishy.
07 August 2020, 05:07 PM
NinaBut I do think he's onto something. I do feel that many people do vote based on emotion, not logic. Ultimately, I think his 13 keys are a way of predicting people's emotional response to the current societal situation, and the role of the incumbent (if they exist) in creating that. I found it interesting from a behavioral standpoint, and it's certainly no less accurate than the polls in predicting the last few presidential elections.