quote:

The USC Dornsife poll, a joint project of the university’s Center for Economic and Social Research and the Center for the Political Future, surveys each panel member every 14 days. The current results are based on responses from 5,106 panel members.

The poll asks respondents to use a 0-to-100 scale to give the likelihood that they would support Trump or Biden. It also asks them on a separate 0-to-100 scale to give the likelihood that they will vote. Using those numbers, the poll calculates the probability of each person voting for the candidate.

In theory, because that approach uses information from all voters surveyed, it should provide a more complete look at the electorate than other polls that give people a choice between candidates but then count only the group of respondents who are deemed likely to vote.

Separately, the poll also asks respondents how they believe friends, neighbors and other people in their social circles will vote. That question shows a smaller Biden lead, 50% to 45%.

The closer result on the question about friends and neighbors could be evidence of a hidden Trump vote — people who won’t say on a poll that they’re voting for Trump, but will tell their friends. But other explanations are also possible, including that some Democrats, still stung by the upset result in 2016, simply overestimate the number of people who will vote for Trump.

quote:

Originally posted by Nina:
I listened to a data analyst interviewed last night on Axios--talking about the "red mirage." It's all over the news today.

Basically, his data models show that it's quite likely that Trump will look like he's won in a landslide on election night, because those numbers are driven by in-person voting, which is dominated by GOP. Mail-in balloting, dominated by Democrats, is slower to count. In addition, people are requesting mail-in or absentee ballots at the highest rates ever. So the result of all this is a situation where election results on the first night may show Trump in a landslide, but as the mail-in ballots are counted more slowly over the next days (or weeks!), they should swing decisively toward Biden.

It's an interesting theory, and it may keep many of us from going on a bender on election night. On a more serious note, it also creates a situation where the Donald can talk about rigged elections, and gives him days to gin up his rabid base to create mayhem. I'm nervous, personally.

quote:

Originally posted by Nina:
I listened to a data analyst interviewed last night on Axios--talking about the "red mirage." It's all over the news today.

Basically, his data models show that it's quite likely that Trump will look like he's won in a landslide on election night, because those numbers are driven by in-person voting, which is dominated by GOP. Mail-in balloting, dominated by Democrats, is slower to count. In addition, people are requesting mail-in or absentee ballots at the highest rates ever. So the result of all this is a situation where election results on the first night may show Trump in a landslide, but as the mail-in ballots are counted more slowly over the next days (or weeks!), they should swing decisively toward Biden.

It's an interesting theory, and it may keep many of us from going on a bender on election night. On a more serious note, it also creates a situation where the Donald can talk about rigged elections, and gives him days to gin up his rabid base to create mayhem. I'm nervous, personally.

quote:

Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points:
0-1 points: just 6%!
1-2 points: 22%
2-3 points: 46%
3-4 points: 74%
4-5 points: 89%
5-6 points: 98%
6-7 points: 99%