Yes, that's a hopeful thread. but there a fair number of buts in there. But Ukraine needs time, for starters.

If the Russians still have local superiority in artillery, even with their creaky logistics, they can continue to drive Ukraine back. They can sap Ukrainian trained manpower and equipment, and possibly destroy some of the new Ukrainian toys in the process. I have seen videos of shiny new US howitzers exploding in colorful bursts of red and yellow. This will set back any potential Ukrainian counteroffensives and put pressure on Ukraine to negotiate a semi-surrender (accede to territorial loss).

And if they achieve any local breakthrough that could affect politics in possibly scary ways.

[Aside: I have been reading about Ukraine's massive counteroffensive against Kherson for literally MONTHS. They trumpet every 150 person hamlet that "falls" to their forces, and make the claim four times over a week if they lose the hamlet again and regain it. Rinse, wash & repeat. It begins to sound truly phony.]

It's all a matter of timing.

Can Ukraine bulk up its trained military and add sufficient modern weaponry to go on the counterattack before Russia wears them out and wears out the patience of Ukraine's EU "allies." Russia still has economic levers to pull to agitate German resolve and to affect the upcoming US elections. I suspect we'll see a spike in natural gas prices and oil prices in September/October as Russia suddenly turns off the spigots. They'll lose revenue too, but they'll be gambling that the political damage done in Berlin and Washington will pay handsome dividends down the road. It's a matter of resolve as much as it is logistics on the battlefield.

I see your long thread, and raise you one!

It kind of expands on my POV expressed above.

Update on Russia's Strategy

Does anyone still think Ukraine will win? Russia is already taking the territory it thinks belongs to them.

If you read the two threads Quirt and I posted, you'll get some answers to that question and more. Yes, Ukraine can still win, and no, Russia's objectives are far broader than the territory they currently hold.

You want an optimistic view, well how 'bout this one!

Logistics Collapse