well-temperedforum.groupee.net The Well-Tempered Forum Off Key Could someone please stage an intervention? I need help. Thank you.Go | New | Find | Notify | Tools | Reply | |
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Has Achieved Nirvana |
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| Has Achieved Nirvana |
This is the page I follow to see the latest info: https://www.realclearpolitics....est_polls/elections/ | |||
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Has Achieved Nirvana |
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Has Achieved Nirvana |
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| Has Achieved Nirvana |
That's pretty much where I'm at, but I do occasionally stop to gawk. But it's not for long.
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| Does This Avatar Make My Butt Look Big? Minor Deity  |
I don't follow that one as much. They tend to cherry-pick polls. I spend more time at 538, where they list every poll, no matter how lame. (SurveyMonkey, get your act together.) But 538 doesn't give me the margin of error, so I have to check RealClear for that. Or just read through the entire poll result summary myself. It's exhausting . . . Cindy -- who might post some of the Florida operative blog analysis of the early vote, just to make you share her pain | |||
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| Serial origamist Has Achieved Nirvana  |
I'm just trying to decide whether I should do anything with my investments between now and the election. Has anyone here divested partly or fully from the U.S. stock market? Overall, my 401(k) and stuff seem to be healthy after a huge drop and recovery earlier this year. But we know the one thing the market hates most of all is uncertainty. I hope there will be a slight dip in the next two weeks, then a recovery and stabilization once the election results are known. However, if I-1 refuses to leave and his armed supporters start to agitate, things could get bad for a while. Again, I hope it will only be a very short while.
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| Serial origamist Has Achieved Nirvana |
Oh, and my take is that in 2016 the polls were right... it was the election results that were wrong. Maybe this is now conspiracy theory, but I still think there was something fudged in the results... Cambridge Analytica determined that I-1 only needed to carry one specific county in each of five "swing" states. Several essays over the years have noted that each state--and in cases, each county in each state--having different rules and different ways of counting made it much harder to tamper with the election. But if you just take those five counties that CA identified and mess with their results, you change the entire outcome. The net of all this: The electoral college is an obsolete vestige from a past century. We need to dump it and institute either a straight popular vote or something else that makes sense and actually reflects the will of the people.
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| "I've got morons on my team." Mitt Romney Minor Deity  |
No. I haven't. I have made more money in the stock market over the past 12 months than in any 12 month period in my life. This in a time of political turmoil and pandemic panic. I have no crystal ball to predict sudden shocks or changes in public mood. I can't say if a Biden presidency and the tax increases that will follow will be good for the market or bad for the market. If anything, I'm optimistic that a several trillion dollar stimulus, including massive infrastructure spending (promised by Donnie and then dropped) will invigorate the economy next year. Oh, and what about that vaccine? Who knows how that'll play out. Having said that, I have parked about 10% in cash. If things dip suddenly, I have resources to use for strategic buying. | |||
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Minor Deity |
I did make a slight change on advise from my IRA manager. (He is always right!  )I had two funds on the losing side so we sold them and put the funds back into two I have that have been consistently on the upside. But not really because the election warranted it, just time to do it.
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Minor Deity |
I’m confident Trump is going to lose. I’m hoping he has the sense to lose gracefully so he doesn’t damage his brand or chance to be the next AM radio idiot. Jf
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| Does This Avatar Make My Butt Look Big? Minor Deity |
It will not surprise you to hear I have been following the issue of the accuracy of the 2016 polls closely. It's a myth that the polls were wrong. Clinton was fading badly following the James Comey intervention, and this was visible in the polling. What was wrong was the frenzy among pundits, which gave her a 99% chance of winning. FiveThirtyEight gave her a 71% chance of winning, with Trump at 29%, and 29% is not nothing. The PA polls had Clinton leading by 2.7% on election day, and Trump won by .7%. Her lead had fallen from the 6-11% range over the last three weeks of the campaign. | |||
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| Has Achieved Nirvana |
That rings true to my recollection. I remember thinking Comey gave us Trump.
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Minor Deity |
Wondering how things may be different this year in reporting presidential results, on account of the number of mail-in ballots. Is this significantly different from previous years, so that we're apt to need to wait for every ballot to be counted? I assume if it's a landslide in either direction (per the accursed Electoral College), no wait will matter except in post-hoc analyses of how various demographics exerted an influence. Likewise, if counts are so close that missing ballots will create nail biters that require us to wait for the stragglers. But otherwise, are we apt to get a yeah or nay within the same period as usual - i.e., by early morning? (Will the Electors be able - within the framework of their honor-bound commitments [??] - to cast their states' votes in that same time frame?) PS Guessing the senatorial, and rep votes may indeed create waits especially in states with smaller voter populations. (?)
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| Does This Avatar Make My Butt Look Big? Minor Deity |
Florida will count quickly, and if Trump loses Florida it is pretty much over. | |||
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well-temperedforum.groupee.net The Well-Tempered Forum Off Key Could someone please stage an intervention? I need help. Thank you.