From an Atlantic newsletter:

Donald Trump’s second impeachment trial provided little closure. “If you looked to the U.S. Senate for a full measure of accountability, you did not receive it,” my colleague David Frum wrote over the weekend.

But Trump himself still lost, Frum argues: Polls show support for the former president’s actions dwindling—“not the numbers on which to base a Grover Cleveland–style comeback tour.”

Even if Trump’s political career is currently lagging, what does the future hold for his base—and the ideology he rode to office on?

Here’s what history tells us about what’s next for Trumpism. “From Berlusconism in Italy to Perónism in Argentina and Fujimorismo in Peru, personality-driven movements rarely fade once their leaders have left office.”

A skirmish in Oregon shows the deep imprint of Trump’s ideology on the GOP. “To the frustration of those Republicans who want to steer a new course, state-party committees have become the strongest redoubts of Trumpism,” Russell Berman reported last week.

America’s next authoritarian will be much more competent. As Zeynep Tufekci warned back in November: "It won’t be easy to make the next Trumpist a one-term president."

Yea, not going away any time soon.

The GOP can't ignore what's happened since 2016. They lost the White House, the Senate, and the House. Sticking with Trump may not be an effective strategy, especially if Biden can get the pandemic under control and the economy back on track.

Where the GOP ends up will all boil down to the state committees and what candidates they float. Right now they're sticking with Trump and Trump-like people, but where they ultimately end up will depend on where the donor money goes.

I found this interesting:

Americans who believe Trump should have been found guilty (ABC/Ipsos poll): 58 percent

Senators voting guilty: 57 percent

Some 70 percent of people think Trump was at least partially responsible for January 6.

It'll be interesting to watch the GOP sort this out.

Megan McArdle says There is no Trumpism, There is Only Trump.

We'll see what future investigations and possible criminal actions produce. The tarnish on Trump may blacken further, making those state party apparatchiks ever more out of touch with the American middle. But those important state-level parties might actually be much more secure with what is now the GOP's core voter group, which has become very extreme.

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America’s next authoritarian will be much more competent.

Ummmm... pretty low bar there.

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We'll see what future investigations and possible criminal actions produce. The tarnish on Trump may blacken further....

I hope that the investigations and criminal prosecutions lead to convictions. It's hard to run for office when you are in the pokey.

I also hope hope HOPE that all of his adult spawn (except Tiff, who hasn't had much to do with the grift and graft as far as I can see) get convicted, as well, and the spawn-in-laws, as applicable. The idea of Lara running for anything is a freakin' joke... but we know how some 30% of eligible voters love that kind of humor.