I am remembering a thread I started about the importance of vaccinating the continent of Africa (and other impoverished countries) out of Western self-interest more than out of compassion.

The idea being that such areas were bound to be hotbeds of incubation. From there, the ever dreaded "super variants" would emerge and pulverize affluent countries despite their high vaccination rates and diligent social control measures.

Yet, that hasn't happened. Despite the low vaccination rates and constant exposures of crowded social/market life and congested living conditions, Africa has remained relatively free of both contagion and death.

Even though it's admittedly hard to determine infection because of lack of testing, population sampling reveal high rates of prior infection (through antibody revelation). It's also argued that without knowing statistics about infection and death for sure, the traditions of elaborate rituals surrounding deaths insure the impossibility of observors' missing vast numbers of Covid deaths.

There are NOT an unexpected number of uncounted deaths in Africa.

Why are Africa's rates of Covid infection and deaths so low?

Arguments about how real rates may be much higher camouflaged by poor information gathering, are challenged by India's very high rates considering their comparable conditions: great poverty, congested living conditions, poor sanitation and equally hot climate. It's also been argued that the low median life expectancy in Africa (25) means few reach an advanced enough age to put them at risk of age-related ailments (cancer, degenerative ailments and cardiovascular deaths), and thus, a population more vulnerable to Covid deaths.

But all the same holds for India (there the median age is 28), whose Covid rates are devastatingly high.

An argument among the scientific and public policy communities rages about the worthwhileness/worthlessness of continuing to spend on increasing vaccination. Is it a waste of money since for some reason, Africans seem somehow protected from Covid? Or do the same prior risk/benefit calculations hold, about the dangers of the development of world-endangering variants if vaccinations aren't encouraged?

Are the rates of infection and death so high in South Africa because of more testing there? But if so, why are neighboring Zimbabwe's rates as low as in the rest of sub-Saharan Africa? And again, what about the antibody statistics showing that most Africans HAVE contracted Covid at some point?

It would be "beautiful" (quote from epidemiologist studying the mystery) to think Africans are somehow protected but many comparisons - India, especially - seem to contradict that conclusion.

What do you think in consideration of the discussion in this article? (Note, as ever before, most deaths of Africans, children especially, are due to malaria.).

Others are looking too:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33075535/

"Conclusion: Africa's lower COVID-19 mortality rate is due to the lower population mean age, lower life expectancy, lower pre-COVID-19 era '65yr+ mortality rate', and smaller pool of people surviving and living with cardiovascular diseases."

quote:

Originally posted by rontuner:
Others are looking too:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33075535/

"Conclusion: Africa's lower COVID-19 mortality rate is due to the lower population mean age, lower life expectancy, lower pre-COVID-19 era '65yr+ mortality rate', and smaller pool of people surviving and living with cardiovascular diseases."

I see that this study doesn't compare Indian stats to those of Africa. That means its conclusion (Africa's lower median age and lower life expectancy, means fewer adults live long enough to develop cardiovascular disease and thus be more susceptible to Covid) is flawed because of improper statistical sampling.

Namely, there are other countries like India which share its statistics while having stratospheric rates of Covid infection and death.

Personally, I'm concluding that there is a genetic component in sub-Saharan Africans which protects against both symptomatic infection and death.