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Empty retail space

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18 October 2020, 12:11 PM
wtg
Empty retail space
quote:
Commercial real estate is in trouble, and turbulence in the $15 trillion market is threatening to bleed over into the broader financial system just as the U.S. struggles to emerge from a recession.

The longer the pandemic paralyzes hotels, retailers and office buildings, the more difficult it is for property owners to meet their mortgage payments — raising the specter of widespread downgrades, defaults and eventual foreclosures. As companies like J.C. Penney, Neiman Marcus and Pier 1 file for bankruptcy, retail properties are losing major tenants with no clear plan to replace them, while hotels are running below 50 percent occupancy.

Seven months into the crisis, the industry’s pleas for relief to Congress and the Federal Reserve have been in vain: Lawmakers are at odds over even the most basic details of an economic relief package for individuals, let alone businesses, and the Fed, leery of taking on more risk, is hoping the trillion-dollar market for securities backed by commercial mortgages will heal itself.

There's also the fear that directing significant relief to the industry would be seen as a “handout to the president’s friends” since Donald Trump made his fortune in commercial real estate, said one lobbyist frustrated with the lack of traction the issue is getting with policymakers.

“Sometimes people forget the depth and breadth of what commercial real estate is,” said Mike Flood, senior vice president of commercial and multifamily policy at the Mortgage Bankers Association. “What’s at risk here is both the ability for people to stay in their apartments and the ability for people to go to their jobs. So unless there’s a stimulus, there’s a lot less to go back to once we get back to normal times.”


https://www.politico.com/news/...-retail-space-429994


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We are all visitors to this time, this place. We are just passing through. Our purpose here is to observe, to learn, to grow, to love… and then we return home. - Australian Aboriginal proverb

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14 November 2020, 01:27 PM
wtg
quote:
It was called “jingle mail” during the last recession.

Real estate owners in the wake of the 2007-2008 financial crisis who opted not to fight to keep their homes or commercial properties, instead sent back the keys to lenders to sort out the mortgage mess.

Simon Property Group SPG, +8.04%, the largest U.S. retail real-estate investment Trust (REIT) and shopping center operator, recently took similar actions on four of its struggling shopping malls that have $410.9 million of mortgage debt, according to a team at KBRA Credit Profile, a research arm of Kroll Bond Rating Agency.

The mall owner indicated it would engage in a “friendly foreclosure” of the Mall at Tuttle Crossing in Dublin, Ohio, and the Southridge Mall in Greendale, Wis., in monthly property reports to bond investors, according to the team.

It also revealed it no longer would inject capital into the Montgomery Mall in North Wales, Pa., and would give the lender back Simon’s title interest in the Crystal Mall in Waterford, Conn., the monthly reports showed.


https://www.marketwatch.com/st..._article_top_stories


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We are all visitors to this time, this place. We are just passing through. Our purpose here is to observe, to learn, to grow, to love… and then we return home. - Australian Aboriginal proverb

Bazootiehead-in-training



14 November 2020, 02:50 PM
QuirtEvans
I've been seeing this coming for months. The ripple effects in the financial system are going to be a major problem.

I've read about malls being repurposed to create housing stock. Way too much parking, but maybe some of that pavement could be turned into grass and trees. Storefronts are a much bigger problem.
14 November 2020, 03:06 PM
ShiroKuro
What is a friendly foreclosure?


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14 November 2020, 03:10 PM
QuirtEvans
quote:
Originally posted by ShiroKuro:
What is a friendly foreclosure?


I think it's non-adversarial. The lender and borrower agree on what will happen. Kind of like, "I'll give you the keys back, you get ownership, of the property, my debt is wiped off the books, no lawsuits, ok?"
14 November 2020, 03:12 PM
Doug
quote:
Originally posted by QuirtEvans:
quote:
Originally posted by ShiroKuro:
What is a friendly foreclosure?


I think it's non-adversarial. The lender and borrower agree on what will happen. Kind of like, "I'll give you the keys back, you get ownership, of the property, my debt is wiped off the books, no lawsuits, ok?"


It really takes all of the fun out of it…
14 November 2020, 03:16 PM
Steve Miller
quote:
Originally posted by Doug:
quote:
Originally posted by QuirtEvans:
quote:
Originally posted by ShiroKuro:
What is a friendly foreclosure?


I think it's non-adversarial. The lender and borrower agree on what will happen. Kind of like, "I'll give you the keys back, you get ownership, of the property, my debt is wiped off the books, no lawsuits, ok?"


Big Grin

It really takes all of the fun out of it…


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Life is short. Play with your dog.

14 November 2020, 04:03 PM
pianojuggler
quote:
Originally posted by Doug:
quote:
Originally posted by QuirtEvans:
quote:
Originally posted by ShiroKuro:
What is a friendly foreclosure?


I think it's non-adversarial. The lender and borrower agree on what will happen. Kind of like, "I'll give you the keys back, you get ownership, of the property, my debt is wiped off the books, no lawsuits, ok?"


It really takes all of the fun out of it…
If you can't throw a few widows and orphans out in the snow, why be in business at all?


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14 November 2020, 04:40 PM
QuirtEvans
Here's a story about the office space glut in Manhattan:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news...n=socialflow-organic
14 November 2020, 05:35 PM
Steve Miller
The same thing is happening in the OC. Several huge new office parks completed during the pandemic. Driving by I don't see many cars in the parking lots - which means they have not leased.

This is "Spectrum Terrace. 9 new buildings completed around August.



At a projected rent of $4 - $5 per square foot/month, someone is losing a whole lot of money.


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Life is short. Play with your dog.

15 November 2020, 08:56 AM
Mary Anna
Repurposing shopping malls seems to have a lot of potential.

On the short term, this country's going to need some hospital space, so maybe that income could help finance the necessary transitional costs to convert some of them to housing. Quirt is right about the excess parking, but he is also right about the need for green space. There would also be plenty of room for playgrounds and athletic fields that would make the new housing attractive.

If enough people lived there, there might even be a need for a little bit of retail space--a pharmacist, a small grocery store, and such.

We built these behemoths. It makes sense to find a use for them instead of tearing them down. I fear that we're going to have to repurpose some other things. Movie theaters come to mind.


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Mary Anna Evans
http://www.maryannaevans.com
MaryAnna@ermosworld.com

15 November 2020, 12:37 PM
Nina
There's discussion here in PDX to repurpose a lot of this for affordable housing. We could certainly use it. Another strong option involves shopping malls which also have the benefit (here) of having fully built out transit options. It's worth pointing out that the decline of shopping malls started well before COVID.

One of the challenges will be nimby, another is to avoid gentrification.
15 November 2020, 12:50 PM
Steve Miller
I suspect it costs more to retrofit an old mall than it does to demolish the mall and build from scratch.


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Life is short. Play with your dog.