You have to wonder what would happen if NATO simply declared Ukraine a NATO member and issued an eviction notice to Russia.

I have been reading all day about Ukraine's supposed destruction of the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet, the missile cruiser Moskva. Ukraine claims to have hit it with two cruise missiles, and some reports say the ship is dead in the water and sinking.

I tend to dismiss these reports. Last week they claimed to have destroyed the frigate Admiral Essen, and no corroborating evidence ever appeared.

But now TASS, the Russian news agency chimes in with a story that munitions just suddenly exploded aboard the ship, and that it has been evacuated.

TASS story

If you believe the ordnance suddenly caught fire spontaneously, I have a $2m shack for you in the Everglades that has a great water view.

This is a watershed event. I'm actually a bit worried. This was the main Russian capital ship in the region, and the Ukrainians just took it out. This ship had the best defenses against any such attack of any ship in their fleet. Alas, the Ukrainians don't have a farmer's tractor to pull it back to Ukraine for reuse ...

My worries are about Russian reactions. Some have actually speculated that the destructions of something as important as the Moskva, with 500 sailors on board, could prompt Putin to lay a nuclear egg on some target in Ukraine.

Also, there is a significant likelihood that all the targeting intelligence needed to pull this off may have come from US electronic warfare aircraft flying over northeastern Romania today. Even if the US was not directly involved, Moscow could make the assertion as justification for doing something rash. I sure hope our forces are on hyper alert at the moment.

Well there's a cheerful news item before bedtime.....

Oh, boy. Here we go.

The word I am reading on Twitter is that this was cleverly planned by the Ukrainians.

The Moskva’s best radar system only had 180 degree capability. So, the Ukrainians used a drone to distract that radar system and point it the wrong way. The Moskva’s 360 degree secondary system couldn’t detect cruise missles skimming over the waves. Boom.

The Ukrainian forces have shown themselves to be quite clever and economical in their use of expensive weapons. I would not be at all surprised if they caught the Russians with their pants down.

I still do not think Putin will nuke Ukraine. Even with his tsar delusions.

The Russians are threatening additional nuclear deployments in the Baltic region if Sweden and Finland join NATO.

Sabre-rattling or real?

quote:

Originally posted by wtg:
The Russians are threatening additional nuclear deployments in the Baltic region if Sweden and Finland join NATO.

Sabre-rattling or real?

Does it matter all that much? With the range of what used to be called ICBMs (are they still called that?), it really doesn't matter where they are based. If they can reach the U.S., they can reach Finland.

quote:

Originally posted by QuirtEvans:
The word I am reading on Twitter is that this was cleverly planned by the Ukrainians.

The Moskva’s best radar system only had 180 degree capability. So, the Ukrainians used a drone to distract that radar system and point it the wrong way. The Moskva’s 360 degree secondary system couldn’t detect cruise missles skimming over the waves. Boom.

Yeah, well, I have read arguments that this lure idea is wrong. The drone may have been part of the targeting process, not a distraction. Lots and lots of armchair quarterbacking from people who hold the elephant's tail and think they understand what the animal must look like. It generates lots of twitter clicks for 'em.

As for Putin nuking Ukraine, I suppose I would worry more if the Russians were pumping out news stories about "evil Ukrainian Nazis kill 500 patriotic Russian sailors." Instead, they're still sticking with the "well, something just, just, accidentally exploded" story.

Now, this artillery capacity may be a real headache for Russia going forward ...

Ukrainian Artillery Bombarding Russian Forces

I believe Ukraine is receiving more self-propelled 152mm howitzers to complement their already accurate artillery forces. Quite capable of making Russian troop concentrations vulnerable. Ukraine rarely concentrates troops, preferring small-unit tactics with sergeants and lieutenants in command of troops that can use their initiative to hit, run, and hit again.

It’s too bad that Ukraine didn’t join NATO a long time ago like the three Baltic nations did. I read that Ukraine would like to do that now but it’s too late for them. Wise move by Sweden and Finland to join NATO. Both nations just might need future NATO help. I suspect Austria might be the next country to join NATO because it neighbors East European countries that Russia might have designs on to reclaim. Kazakhstan might be on Russia’s reclaim short list because it contains Russia’s space launching base.

Vlad plays the nuclear card.

"Russia warns of nuclear, hypersonic deployment if Sweden and Finland join NATO"

https://www.reuters.com/world/...-finland-2022-04-14/

I hadn't considered it when I posted about the nuclear threat, but as Quirt mentioned above, it's probably a moot point...they could nuke anyone with the weapons they have in place already.