The Coronavirus Arrives

Great. My hood.

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pj, citizen-poster, unless specifically noted otherwise.

mod-in-training.

pj@ermosworld∙com

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Posts: 30040 | Registered: 27 April 2005

Ignored post by pianojuggler posted

Steve Miller

Has Achieved Nirvana

posted

It looks like Chinese authorities are taking this threat seriously and have taken a number of measures to help stop the spread.

Good to see.

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Life is short. Play with your dog.

Posts: 35084 | Location: Hooterville, OH | Registered: 23 April 2005

Ignored post by Steve Miller posted

pianojuggler

Serial origamist
Has Achieved Nirvana

posted

So, the person in the Seattle area was in Wuhan and got home about a week ago. He said he did not visit the fish market that seems to be the center of the epidemic. He is now in quarantine at a hospital north of Seattle and authorities are looking into other people who may have come in contact with him since he got off the plane.

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pj, citizen-poster, unless specifically noted otherwise.

mod-in-training.

pj@ermosworld∙com

All types of erorrs fixed while you wait.

Posts: 30040 | Registered: 27 April 2005

Ignored post by pianojuggler posted

Has Achieved Nirvana

posted

This bug could be interesting.

quote:
What's the picture globally?

Authorities around the world have announced screening measures for passengers from China.

Thailand has confirmed four cases of the virus, the most outside China. The US, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea have all reported one case each.

On Thursday, three more nations confirmed cases:

Singapore. A 66-year-old man who had travelled from Wuhan is being held in an isolation room. It has another suspected case
Vietnam. The health ministry has confirmed two Chinese citizens have the virus
Saudi Arabia; An Indian nurse working in the city of Khamis Mushait has tested positive, the Indian foreign ministry says

The first US case was confirmed on Tuesday. President Donald Trump said the situation was "totally under control" and that he trusted the information being provided by Chinese authorities.

Patients in Scotland tested for coronavirus

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51217455

A few charts here:

https://www.nbcnews.com/health...-cases-2020-n1120686

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When the world wearies and society ceases to satisfy, there is always the garden - Minnie Aumônier

Posts: 38221 | Location: Somewhere in the middle | Registered: 19 January 2010

Ignored post by wtg posted

piqaboo

What Life?

posted

The timing is brutal - HUGE travel during lunar/Chinese new year. With confirmed person to person transmission, the Chinese Gov't is recommending people stay home, like home indoors at home.

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Ignored post by piqaboo posted

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Confirmed case in Chicago.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/2...go-patient-confirmed

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When the world wearies and society ceases to satisfy, there is always the garden - Minnie Aumônier

Posts: 38221 | Location: Somewhere in the middle | Registered: 19 January 2010

Ignored post by wtg posted

ShiroKuro

(self-titled) semi-posting lurker
Minor Deity

posted

quote:
Originally posted by piqaboo:
The timing is brutal - HUGE travel during lunar/Chinese new year. With confirmed person to person transmission, the Chinese Gov't is recommending people stay home, like home indoors at home.

I have a former student who works in Japan, she's Chinese and is home in China for the New Year's holiday. She just posted on FB, she's all dressed up in pretty traditional dress but she said she can't go anywhere and she's afraid of being stopped coming into the country when she returns to Japan.

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Posts: 18860 | Location: not in Japan any more | Registered: 20 April 2005

Ignored post by ShiroKuro posted

Piano*Dad

"I've got morons on my team."

Mitt Romney
Minor Deity

posted

Xi talks of accelerating health crisis

Yet I wonder. Do we yet have any credible analysis of the disease to say where it ranks, say, against the normal flu. The fact that it has "killed seven people" so far in Wuhan might pale into background noise against mortality from things we're much more familiar with. People do tend to find "new" risks much scarier than "old" risks, even if the evidence points in the direction of the old risks being truly much worse.

Posts: 12759 | Location: Williamsburg, VA | Registered: 19 July 2005

Ignored post by Piano*Dad posted

Has Achieved Nirvana

posted

quote:
Do we yet have any credible analysis of the disease to say where it ranks, say, against the normal flu.

Some data and discussion regarding mortality rates for influenza.

Interesting bit:

quote:
It is also important to recognize that commercial interests may be inflating the perceived impact of influenza and other infectious “pandemics.”28 There is a clear need for more evidence-based accounts of influenza in the context of historical epidemiology and current social and medical advances.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2374803/

Getting back to the current bug...There is the recent experience with two other coronaviruses, namely SARS (8,098 cases, 774 deaths, mortality rate of 9.6%) and MERS (2494 confirmed cases, 858 deaths, mortality rate of 34.4%).

This one doesn't look quite as bad:

quote:
WHO officials said the mortality rate from the new virus, is 3.8% as of Wednesday, which is low compared to other outbreaks. WHO officials have investigators on the ground in China gathering more data, which committee members said they need before calling it a global health emergency.

However....

quote:
SARS, however, didn’t spread as fast in its first few weeks as the current coronavirus outbreak, according to WHO data. It took almost two months for SARS to spread to 456 people. By comparison, the 2019 coronavirus has already infected more than 571 people in less than a month.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/2...as-public-fears.html

Lots of moving parts....

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When the world wearies and society ceases to satisfy, there is always the garden - Minnie Aumônier

Posts: 38221 | Location: Somewhere in the middle | Registered: 19 January 2010

Ignored post by wtg posted

Piano*Dad

"I've got morons on my team."

Mitt Romney
Minor Deity

posted

quote:
quote:
WHO officials said the mortality rate from the new virus, is 3.8% as of Wednesday, which is low compared to other outbreaks. WHO officials have investigators on the ground in China gathering more data, which committee members said they need before calling it a global health emergency.

I'm sure this is a very biased sample, as early epidemiological samples often are. My guess is that it's very upward biased. It has caught the sickest people. The ones who never bothered to be identified because they just felt like they had a cold, or had no discernible symptoms at all, aren't in the denominator. It's actually a very good sign that the death rate is so low, given the likely biases in the sample.

Posts: 12759 | Location: Williamsburg, VA | Registered: 19 July 2005

Ignored post by Piano*Dad posted

Has Achieved Nirvana

posted

Even at less than 3.4%, it's way higher than a typical year of influenza.

Unless it's 1918.

Tricky business, epidemiology.

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When the world wearies and society ceases to satisfy, there is always the garden - Minnie Aumônier

Posts: 38221 | Location: Somewhere in the middle | Registered: 19 January 2010

Ignored post by wtg posted

Piano*Dad

"I've got morons on my team."

Mitt Romney
Minor Deity

posted

Tricky business, I agree, but given the potential biases, I don't give the 3.4% statistic much credibility.

Posts: 12759 | Location: Williamsburg, VA | Registered: 19 July 2005

Ignored post by Piano*Dad posted

Steve Miller

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posted

New case confirmed in my 'hood.

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Posts: 35084 | Location: Hooterville, OH | Registered: 23 April 2005

Ignored post by Steve Miller posted

Amanda

Minor Deity
Picture of Amanda

posted

quote:
Originally posted by wtg:

However....

quote:
SARS, however, didn’t spread as fast in its first few weeks as the current coronavirus outbreak, according to WHO data. It took almost two months for SARS to spread to 456 people. By comparison, the 2019 coronavirus has already infected more than 571 people in less than a month.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/2...as-public-fears.html

Lots of moving parts....

What's extra scary about this new bug is reportedly that a person is contagious before they're
symptomatic. (NOT true of SARS.) That means it will spread faster.

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Posts: 14392 | Location: PA | Registered: 20 April 2005

Ignored post by Amanda posted