quote:

Originally posted by Piano*Dad:
Could be far worse than a few cyber attacks shortly.

The US has seemingly just green-lighted transferring jets from NATO arsenals (Poland, for instance) to Ukraine. We would then backfill Poland's needs with new equipment.

quote:

Originally posted by Piano*Dad:
Could be far worse than a few cyber attacks shortly.

The US has seemingly just green-lighted transferring jets from NATO arsenals (Poland, for instance) to Ukraine. We would then backfill Poland's needs with new equipment.

The problem, of course, is how you ensure that the Russians don't simply wait for the new Ukrainian jets to fly back into Ukrainian airspace before engaging them and destroying all of them. Do we plan to allow Ukraine to fly combat missions from Polish airfields, returning to rearm and re-fly at will? That would be a big risky bet that Russian wouldn't launch lots of missiles directly at these Polish airbases.

I'm beginning to smell the one-step-after-another sequence that ultimately turns into one huge misstep. A misstep right into World War Three in Europe.

Blinken Green Lights Sending Jets

quote:

Originally posted by Piano*Dad:
How do you get the planes into Ukraine? How do you keep them from being blown to bits the moment they cross into Ukraine from, say, Poland? How do you use them if a few actually manage to land at a Ukrainian airbase and the Russians then blast the base with missiles and airstrikes? I'm not seeing how this actually works short of NATO protection of Ukrainian airspace, or allowing the Ukrainian pilots to fly missions using NATO airbases. Tell me how this works.

It's a lot easier to ship stinger missiles to the border in a truck where they can be offloaded in the dark at 2:00 A.M. for quick disbursement to the front.

quote:

Originally posted by QuirtEvans:

quote:

Originally posted by Piano*Dad:
Could be far worse than a few cyber attacks shortly.

The US has seemingly just green-lighted transferring jets from NATO arsenals (Poland, for instance) to Ukraine. We would then backfill Poland's needs with new equipment.

The problem, of course, is how you ensure that the Russians don't simply wait for the new Ukrainian jets to fly back into Ukrainian airspace before engaging them and destroying all of them. Do we plan to allow Ukraine to fly combat missions from Polish airfields, returning to rearm and re-fly at will? That would be a big risky bet that Russian wouldn't launch lots of missiles directly at these Polish airbases.

I'm beginning to smell the one-step-after-another sequence that ultimately turns into one huge misstep. A misstep right into World War Three in Europe.

Blinken Green Lights Sending Jets

If you engage a Ukranian jet, you should expect the Ukranian jet to fire back. This isn't, as they say, rocket science.

Attacking a base in Poland before warning Poland to stop letting Ukranian jets take off from there would be a major escalation. It's not as if Poland would be allowing the Ukranian jets to fly missions from there (although maybe that's coming). It's just a transport and refueling stop. One-time only.

More generally, it's beginning to look to me as if Russia is engaged in a war of attrition. I have read that they'd need a minimum of 100,000 troops (including backup for R&R leave) to maintain occupation of Ukraine indefinitely. And they'd be sitting ducks for guerilla warfare. I don't imagine that the Russians will be better at fighting an insurgency than we were. And then there's the reaction back home, especially when any returning troops tell their stories.

Putin's endgame is really a bit of a mystery here.

quote:

Western governments have said most of Ukraine's air force is intact.

quote:

Originally posted by QuirtEvans:

quote:

Originally posted by Piano*Dad:
Could be far worse than a few cyber attacks shortly.

The US has seemingly just green-lighted transferring jets from NATO arsenals (Poland, for instance) to Ukraine. We would then backfill Poland's needs with new equipment.

The problem, of course, is how you ensure that the Russians don't simply wait for the new Ukrainian jets to fly back into Ukrainian airspace before engaging them and destroying all of them. Do we plan to allow Ukraine to fly combat missions from Polish airfields, returning to rearm and re-fly at will? That would be a big risky bet that Russian wouldn't launch lots of missiles directly at these Polish airbases.

I'm beginning to smell the one-step-after-another sequence that ultimately turns into one huge misstep. A misstep right into World War Three in Europe.

Blinken Green Lights Sending Jets

If you engage a Ukranian jet, you should expect the Ukranian jet to fire back. This isn't, as they say, rocket science.

Attacking a base in Poland before warning Poland to stop letting Ukranian jets take off from there would be a major escalation. It's not as if Poland would be allowing the Ukranian jets to fly missions from there (although maybe that's coming). It's just a transport and refueling stop. One-time only.

More generally, it's beginning to look to me as if Russia is engaged in a war of attrition. I have read that they'd need a minimum of 100,000 troops (including backup for R&R leave) to maintain occupation of Ukraine indefinitely. And they'd be sitting ducks for guerilla warfare. I don't imagine that the Russians will be better at fighting an insurgency than we were. And then there's the reaction back home, especially when any returning troops tell their stories.

Putin's endgame is really a bit of a mystery here.