Public opinion is shifting in favor of Democrats on impeachment, with new polls showing about half the nation supports a House inquiry into President Trump after revelations he pressured the Ukrainian president to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden.
The latest NPR-PBS NewsHour-Marist poll found 49 percent approval for impeachment, against 46 percent who said they disapprove. That’s a 10-point jump in favor of impeachment over the same survey from April, around the time that former special counsel Robert Mueller’s report on Russian election interference was released.
A Politico-Morning Consult survey found a similar bounce in a short period of time, with support for impeachment spiking 7 points in the week since the Ukrainian revelations came to light, although only 36 percent in that poll said they support impeachment, compared to 49 percent who said they oppose.
The latest Hill-Harris X survey found support for impeachment rising 12 points to 47 percent, against 42 percent who oppose.
And a Harvard CAPS-Harris survey released on Thursday shortly before the release of a whistleblower complaint confirmed the upward trend toward impeachment.
That survey found the public split at 50-50 on whether Trump should be impeached for “pressuring” the Ukrainian president to investigate Biden’s dealings in the country, including 52 percent of independents. The same poll conducted in July, around the time of Mueller’s testimony to Congress, found only 40 percent of voters overall and 24 percent of independents backing impeachment.
“The poll shows that the public has serious concern over the Trump actions,” said Mark Penn, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll.
“These are generally higher numbers than during the Mueller investigation and most consider his actions inappropriate, even if not impeachable,” he said.
Still, there are some soft spots in the polling for Democrats, particularly among independents and voters in the suburbs, who have recently looked like a potential area of strength for the party.
The NPR survey found that 44 percent of independents support impeachment, against 50 percent who said they oppose it.
And suburban voters are evenly divided, with 48 percent saying they approve and 49 percent saying they disapprove.
Democrats have been hoping to pick up new House seats in suburban districts, where women appear to be turning against the president and fast-changing demographic trends have turned once reliably Republican districts a deeper shade of purple.
“The only poll that will really matter is after the House votes to impeach him, only then will we know if independents in key states think he should be impeached,” said one Democratic operative. “If it’s a no, we lose. If it’s a yes, then we have a chance. I think if the election were tomorrow, the ‘witch hunt’ narrative is still stronger than the argument that he’s used his office for personal gain. We’ll see.”
It's an easy story to digest and, unless you're a died-in-the-wool Trump supporter, a very difficult one to ignore. While there was no explicit quid pro quo statement, the implications are clear.
I don't know if impeachment will result in anything, but I do know that Pelosi had no choice. To ignore this blatant criminal act makes the Democrats just as bad as the GOP.
My 2c.
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