quote:

Originally posted by Piano*Dad:
You've offered your memory as the sample. I've offered one of the most reputable pollsters, who, like most others, saw an outcome that was unexpected.

You still don't seem to understand probability, or how polling works.

Here's another one ...

91% chance (still 9% chance the other way)

... and here is the very reputable Upshot Blog

Upshot Blog


Here is Reuters

Reuters at 90%

Here's one egg-on-face Princeton egghead who said 99%

Princeton professor

... but the article mentions other polling that call this guy a real outlier.

But carry on.

quote:

Originally posted by QuirtEvans:
I think you may misunderstand what an argument from authority is.

An argument from authority is when you say, "X is true because Reputable Person says so!"

When the argument is about what polls said in 2016, and when PD actually shows you what the polls said in 2016, that's not an argument from authority. It's called evidence, evidence in support of his statement. If the argument is about what the polls said then, what better evidence is there than the polls themselves?

quote:

Originally posted by Piano*Dad:
Daniel's memory ...

quote:

Originally posted by Daniel:

quote:

Originally posted by QuirtEvans:
I think you may misunderstand what an argument from authority is.

An argument from authority is when you say, "X is true because Reputable Person says so!"

When the argument is about what polls said in 2016, and when PD actually shows you what the polls said in 2016, that's not an argument from authority. It's called evidence, evidence in support of his statement. If the argument is about what the polls said then, what better evidence is there than the polls themselves?

Six of them? Really?

quote:

The consensus of polling saying Hillary Clinton would win was over 98%.

quote:

Over 98% chance of winning was the aggregate of polling in the US. I remember this clearly. I'm surprised you don't.

quote:

Originally posted by Daniel:
I didn't say 98% of polls. Let me be clear. Over 98% chance was given all polls being included.

Your Nate Silver example of 78% is argument from insufficient sample.