Heading to Venezuela

Apparently loaded with gasoline. What will the US do? We have sanctions on both regimes to stop exactly this sort of trade. Interesting weeks ahead as the five tankers make their way across the Atlantic.

Rather ironic that a nation drenched in crude oil is reduced to paying gold for a tiny dollop of refined products. Twenty years of socialist kleptocracy has taken its toll on their energy industry.

Well, we can't really sink them. That would be a bad move. Blockade at Venezuela?

Or is this important enough to mess with at this point in time?

Not really sure here. Certainly Tehran is trying to bait us.

We have two choices, both bad.

Sink them, no. But we could board and take control. Smaller risk. They aren't accompanied by any warships. Iran doesn't have any that they care to send across the Atlantic. There could be a scuffle and some casualties, so low risk doesn't mean no risk.

If we do that, we had better have all the hatches battened down in the Gulf and at all bases in Iraq, and the air defenses need to be looking for drones coming from any direction.

The alternative is to let them sail to Venezuela and unload. That will make Trump look really bad, and we all know how allergic he is to that.

There may be a third way here. I wonder what the humanitarian impact on Venezuelans would be. If we could justify it in those terms and let the shipments go on we could avoid both looking like a bully and looking weak. Not sure Venezuela has the cash to pay Iran anyway.

You may accuse me of being partisan, but please don't combine the thoughts of "Trump" and "humanitarian". It's incongruous.

There's only his desires and his perceived self-interest. Everything else is words.

quote:

Originally posted by Mikhailoh:
There may be a third way here. I wonder what the humanitarian impact on Venezuelans would be. If we could justify it in those terms and let the shipments go on we could avoid both looking like a bully and looking weak. Not sure Venezuela has the cash to pay Iran anyway.

Venezuela has already supposedly paid for the gas by spending its gold reserves. Iran would not do this out of the goodness of their theocratic hearts. Iran is busting US sanctions here, so there is no "humanitarian" aspect from their part. And for us to call it humanitarian, while Iran pockets the gold, would make Trump look weak AND stupid. Not sure what Trump will do in this set of circumstances, but "I" would probably not let this shipment through.

Well then you can pick one of your two bad alternatives. If they have already paid Iran it doesn't seem we would be accomplishing much of anything.

Fortunately, "I" don't have to pick. Pompeo is in that hot seat.

I'm just noting that the administration has boxed itself into a corner.

I think if I had to make the decision I would be prepared to board the first tanker, place our mid-eastern forces on high alert, and find some face-saving alternative for Iran. Perhaps allow them to ship the oil as a humanitarian gesture by returning the gold payment through verifiable channels.

quote:

Originally posted by Piano*Dad:

quote:

Originally posted by Mikhailoh:
There may be a third way here. I wonder what the humanitarian impact on Venezuelans would be. If we could justify it in those terms and let the shipments go on we could avoid both looking like a bully and looking weak. Not sure Venezuela has the cash to pay Iran anyway.

Venezuela has already supposedly paid for the gas by spending its gold reserves. Iran would not do this out of the goodness of their theocratic hearts. Iran is busting US sanctions here, so there is no "humanitarian" aspect from their part. And for us to call it humanitarian, while Iran pockets the gold, would make Trump look weak AND stupid. Not sure what Trump will do in this set of circumstances, but "I" would probably not let this shipment through.

What you”re describing is a blockade, not sanctions.

Yep, and I have misunderstood our existing sanctions regime. We are shutting down Iran's oil trade by threatening any buyer nation or firm with sanctions. That effectively raises the price of Iranian oil to prohibitive for all but bad guys who don't care and are under some big protective umbrella (Syria). But Venezuela is already under US sanction so they have nothing to lose.

Looks like Iran has the cards in this game unless the US chooses to go beyond the existing sanctions regime.

Really there are two possibilties here. Either Iran is so cash strapped that they will risk losing the product, the most likely scenario IMO, or they want to draw us into something unpleasant. Again.

If they are that cash strapped then our sanctions are working and we don't need to do much here. The cash for five tankers of gas won't keep them afloat long.

If the want to bait us and draw us in, well, we don't really want that either.

I'd say claim humanitarian reasons, keep our powder dry and call it a win. Sinking or blockading them are escalations we really don't need right now.

The administration is probably hoping for a big hurricane!