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538.com's primary forecast model is live
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Has Achieved Nirvana
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This will continuously be updated.

https://projects.fivethirtyeig...20-primary-forecast/


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If you think looting is bad wait until I tell you about civil forfeiture.

 
Posts: 33797 | Location: On the Hudson | Registered: 20 April 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Has Achieved Nirvana
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The 538 guy crashed and burned spectacularly in 2016.

He needs to sit down and shut up.


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Posts: 34809 | Location: Hooterville, OH | Registered: 23 April 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Let they whose predictions are 100% perfect cast the first stone.
 
Posts: 45721 | Registered: 20 April 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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On the day he rode down the esclator to announce his candidacy, I don't think *anyone* thought I-1 had a snowball's chance in hell of winning the nomination. Not the other GOP candidates and not many people in the country.

Same thing for the election.

Forecasts are made from some set of base assumptions. The world we're living in is changing rapidly and bigly, upending our assumptions.

Fivethirtyeight was actually responding to many of those changes and modifying their forecasts/odds during the primaries and election cycle in 2016. I still think they're pretty darn good at what they do.


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We are all visitors to this time, this place. We are just passing through. Our purpose here is to observe, to learn, to grow, to love… and then we return home. - Australian Aboriginal proverb

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Posts: 37671 | Location: Somewhere in the middle | Registered: 19 January 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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