Everything in the Senate now depends on GA and NV.

I really worry about 2024 with new MAGA governors in charge of close elections.

You heard it here.... if the Rethuglicans take either the house or senate by even the narrowest of margins, we will start hearing about how they have a mandate from America...

Congrats, Lisa, et al!

(I'm glad that cretin lost.)

This might make folks feel a bit better (podcast)

I listen to The Drive (this podcast) frequently. This is a decent analysis of why Trumpism lost, by and large, last night.

Polling was off by about 5% in 2020, biased toward Dems. Polling seems off by a about 1% this time, biased toward GOP. Pollsters over-corrected by a tad too much. Not too bad, actually.

quote:

Originally posted by Piano*Dad:
Everything in the Senate now depends on GA and NV.

I really worry about 2024 with new MAGA governors in charge of close elections.

It’s a legitimate concern, but Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan governorships all stayed with the Dems. Arizona and Nevada undecided. Georgia is the same guy as in 2020.

Yeah, I'm worrying about AZ and NV, plus the gerrymandered state legislature in Wisconsin seems capable of anything.

Alas, like the Monty Python character ...

I'm not dead yet ...

... says Boebert.

I’ve been watching AZ and NV, and I think we may not need GA.

For AZ, There are a about 400,000 votes outstanding in Phoenix and 100,000 in the area surrounding Tucson. In the rural counties, there are about 50,000. Kelly is a lock.

In Nevada, the Dem has been closing the gap, and she is now down about 9000 votes. These last votes are mail and early ballots, mostly from Las Vegas. Las Vegas mails a ballot to all voters, which tends to help Dems. I saw on Twitter, so not a great source, that she was winning 65% of this late vote which is why she is closing so quickly. The last time I saw a reliable estimate of the remaining vote, there were 50,000 votes remaining, but that was about two days ago.

For AZ governor, I loathe Kerri Lake, and I am not alone. On Wednesday morning, Dem Katie Hobbs was ahead by just 3000 votes. She has widened her lead with each vote drop, and she is now ahead by 27,000. Given the distribution of the remaining vote, I don’t see how Lake catches up.

As for Walker in Georgia, I think a lot of Republicans voted for governor and couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Walker. I don’t see them coming out in the runoff with a change of heart.

Setting aside Walker’s many, many flaws, I can’t believe the Republicans let him be their nominee. Black candidates cannot win unless they present as educated and polished. Obama, Harris, Booker, Warnock, it’s a very long list. Not one verbally challenged black man with multiple children by multiple women he doesn’t support has ever been elected to statewide office.

quote:

Originally posted by Cindysphinx:

… man with multiple children by multiple women he doesn’t support …

Hershel Walker even had the support of the Family Research Council: https://frcactionpac.org/get.cfm?i=PR22J01&f=

Such is the state of American Conservatism today.

Look, 49% of the GA electorate voted for the "unpolished" black man. Unpolished. Well, that's a euphemism.

Thank Trump and his hold on the GOP mind. He has dumbed down American politics, and it was pretty dumb to begin with. He wants flawed (another euphemism) candidates. They're "genuine" to him. Alas, many GOPpers agree. And many others hold their nose and vote for the scum anyway.

I hope you're right about AZ, Cindy. I agree, I think Kelly's in the clear, but I'd love to see Kari Lake lose, especially since she is, in some ways, the worst of the Trump-backed candidates.

As for the lock Trump has, here in Oregon, there was measure to remove slavery and involuntary servitude as punishment for a crime from the state constitution. The measure passed by around 55% of the vote. Which means that 45% of the voters thought punishment via slavery and involuntary servitude was a good idea.

Oooh, Nevada is a squeaker.

Dem is now down by 1951 votes, with 93% of the vote in.

I think she should be able to eek this out.

There are about 66,000 votes out. In the last drop, she got 62%.

I suck at math, but I’m thinking we will hold NV senate seat by at least 2000 votes.

Edit: now Dem is behind by just 800 votes

Mark Kelly just declared the winner!

The theory about how Kari Lake wins is that there will be a red surge in ballots dropped off that day. Well, if there are a bunch of ballots out there, how come they called for Kelley?

Hang on, Katie. Ya gotta win this thing.