Trump releases long-awaited Middle-East peace plan
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51288218

Oh good. Glad this problem is finally over with.

My Twitter response:

Focussing on this plan's "failings" misses its point. The plan isn't designed to bring a mutually agreed peace. It's designed to aid Likud in the next election, and to allow the terminally risk-averse Netanyahu to do things, like annex the Jordan valley, with fewer repercussions.

quote:

Originally posted by jon-nyc:
Oh good. Glad this problem is finally over with.

May I assume this is the Jared plan?

I think it was handed to him by Netanyahu. Or maybe Jabotinsky’s ghost.

The Allon Plan (labor) saw the Jordan Valley as essential to Israel's long term security. This isn't just right wing thinking.

Well of course there’d be overlap. But surely this is Netanyahu’s plan.

Yes, but. I don't see this as driving a wedge between Likud and Blue/White. Gantz will be equally happy incorporating the Jordan Valley. He'll likely be less happy with some of the isolated settlements, but in its broad outlines this "plan" likely will be welcomed by 70% of Israel's electorate. [Everybody but the Arab sector, Hadash, Meretz, Mapam, and maybe a few ultra-orthodox who don't accept the Israeli state]

If a plan like this had been proposed in 1986, what would we have seen from Cairo, Jeddah, Amman, Abu Dhabi and Kuwait? We would have seen millions in the street, and the "Arab League" coming together to denounce us. We would have seen the Soviet Union orchestrate a motley collection of developing nations to thunder that the end of neo-colonialism was nigh! And we would have seen hijackings and bombings all over the world.

What will we likely see over the next few weeks? Bloviation from Ankara. The WH will be quaking in its boots. A restrained clucking from Moscow, which is really rather close to Jerusalem these days. Will millions thunder along the Nile? Not thinking so. Will the Gulf states even eject Israeli back-channel trade delegations? Not likely.

Muted Arab Reaction

Why the change in US approach?

This may sound odd, but I think a big part of the reason is ... oil. The US is no longer dependent on the middle east. We're rapidly approaching zero net imports of crude. We simply don't have to carefully "work the room" in Arab capitols any more. A Clinton administration would have taken a very different approach, but the shale boom has given this particular administration, at this particular historical moment, the flexibility to do almost whatever it pleases.

The other forces of restraint, like Russia and the Arab street, are rather preoccupied with other bigger issues. And mass terror isn't really an option either. For a wide range of reasons (technological and political) non-state actors are playing a much smaller role than they did even five years ago (Islamic State), and certainly less than in the late 20th century.

Fareed Zakaria had an interview with Kushner last Sunday. It got broken up into chunks:

https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/...rumps-peace-plan.cnn

https://edition.cnn.com/videos...rump-re-election.cnn

There's another chunk but it's not currently available.

Interesting pieces. Kushner was very well spoken.

At what point do the Palestinian people get tired of being mad at Israel and start wanting a better life? I had a feeling this plan would have more to do with economics than politics.

Maybe it will work.

How does Jared benefit personally?

Figure that out and the plan will make sense.

quote:

Originally posted by Piano*Dad:
This may sound odd, but I think a big part of the reason is ... oil. The US is no longer dependent on the middle east.

O Canada! We can thank our neighbors to the north for that. You may be right--I hadn't thought of that. The Iran situation is also playing into that.

quote:

Originally posted by Steve Miller:
How does Jared benefit personally?

Figure that out and the plan will make sense.

My reaction to the peace plan was that it read like Jared's senior honors thesis. I'd give him a B-, and encourage him to expand his research to other sources.