12 February 2020, 09:02 AM
QuirtEvansNH primary
Nate, despite Steve’s disdain, now is acknowledging a rising chance of a contested convention. He’s putting it at 33%. I think it might be higher, particularly if Biden fades away quickly.
Delegates from last night, which is what matters: Bernie 9, Pete 9, Amy 6. If the convention looks like that overall, it’ll get very interesting.
Side note: there appears to be a reasonably high correlation between pundits I think are smart and worth listening to and those Steve thinks are worthless and should go away,
12 February 2020, 09:03 AM
QuirtEvansOh, and based on recent statements, I wouldn’t be shocked if, when Warren drops out, she throws her support to Klobuchar. (Whose speech last night was great and worth listening to. “I’m Amy Klobuchar, and I’m going to beat Donald Trump!”)
12 February 2020, 09:16 AM
jon-nycThat would be the first thing she ever did as a candidate that I would have respect for. Lol
12 February 2020, 10:16 AM
QuirtEvansShe's made a number of positive comments about Amy recently, including a "girl power" kind of remark last night.
12 February 2020, 10:25 AM
Piano*Dadquote:
Originally posted by jon-nyc:
That would be the first thing she ever did as a candidate that I would have respect for. Lol
12 February 2020, 11:15 AM
NinaIt's dangerous to overinterpret 2 caucus/primary results, but it seems like things are shaking out pretty much as expected: a clear distinction between left-ish candidates (where Sanders has prevailed over Warren) and more "centrist" candidates (where Klobuchar and Buttigieg are the last 2 standing). Will be interesting to see what happens on Super Tuesday when Bloomberg shows up.
IMO, Sanders has won the Sanders/Warren race, but it's still unclear what's going to happen with Buttigieg/Klobuchar.
12 February 2020, 11:19 AM
DanielFitting. LOL.
12 February 2020, 11:35 AM
Steve Millerquote:
Originally posted by QuirtEvans:
Nate, despite Steve’s disdain, now is acknowledging a rising chance of a contested convention. He’s putting it at 33%.
Not surprising. Pundits love the whole horse race excitement thing.
12 February 2020, 11:39 AM
Steve Millerquote:
Originally posted by QuirtEvans:
Side note: there appears to be a reasonably high correlation between pundits I think are smart and worth listening to and those Steve thinks are worthless and should go away,
Believe as you like, but if Nate says Klobuchar will win 40 states I recommend you go out and vote anyway, just in case he's making stuff up.
Like he did last time.
12 February 2020, 01:23 PM
QuirtEvansThere is a difference between making stuff up and being wrong.
Polling is an inexact science, like weather forecasting. (And like most kinds of extrapolation.) I'm quite sure that, despite the imprecision, you check the weather forecast sometimes, even knowing that weather forecasters sometimes get it horribly wrong.
12 February 2020, 01:24 PM
jon-nycAlso in 2016 there was a lot of preference falsification due to the perceived stigma of being a trump voter. He outperformed his polls.
12 February 2020, 01:30 PM
MikhailohHe will this year too. Wait and see.
12 February 2020, 01:52 PM
jon-nycI can imagine that
12 February 2020, 06:53 PM
jon-nycImagine if a month ago someone told you Amy Klobuchar would win more votes in NH than Warren and Biden
combined.
12 February 2020, 07:45 PM
Horacequote:
Originally posted by jon-nyc:
Also in 2016 there was a lot of preference falsification due to the perceived stigma of being a trump voter. He outperformed his polls.
Interesting choice of words. Why "perceived stigma" and not just "stigma"?