Interesting. Kagan seems a stretch though.


https://www.vox.com/policy-and...ader-ginsburg-retire

quote:

Barring extraordinary events, Democrats will control the White House and the Senate for the next two years. They are unlikely to control it for longer than that. The 2024 Senate map is so brutal for Democrats that they would likely need to win a landslide in the national popular vote just to break even. Unless they stanch the damage then, some forecasts suggest that Democrats won’t have a realistic shot at a Senate majority until 2030 or 2032. And even those forecasts may be too optimistic for Democrats.

Seems to me I’ve heard this before.

Most GOP Senate seats are safe, in rural red bastions that only have a handful of electoral votes (small population). Some Democratic seats are in more balanced states, so those seats are in play every time they come up. The next cycle in 2024 has lots of those bad situations for the Dems, and not many for the GOP. It's just statistically unlikely that the Dems will roll enough sevens to save the Senate, absent a 60/40 national landslide.

Weird stuff can always happen in any given state. Alabama had a Democratic senator for two years, but that didn't last once the GOP nominated someone whose faults were confined to stupidity instead of stupidity + child molestation + hypocritical bible thumping. Barring more of that in many GOP states, the map has lots of risk for the Democrats and very little risk for the GOP. GOP seats up in 2024 are in TX, UT, WY, NE, MO, ND, MS, TN, IN, and FL. The GOP is likely to win every one of them. Democrats are likely to lose in AZ, WV, MT, and could easily lose in NV, WI, OH. And it could get worse for the Democrats if they f*** up in VA, NM and PA. We could easily see a 55-45 GOP senate in 2024.