Bossert also said Americans have to prepare to be out of their daily rhythms for weeks:
"How long? Epidemiologists suggest eight weeks might be needed to arrest this outbreak. Administrators, students, teachers and parents need to get busy figuring out how to continue the education of our children while contributing to this community-wide public health effort."
"We would like the country to realize that, as a nation, we can't be doing the kinds of things we were doing a few months ago. That it doesn't matter if you're in a state that has no cases or one case, you have to start taking seriously what you can do now," Fauci said. "Everybody should say, 'All hands on deck. This is what we need to do,'" he said.
The crisis in northern Italy is what happens when a fast doubling rate meets a “threshold effect,” where the character of an event can massively change once its size hits a certain threshold.
In this case, the threshold is things such as ICU beds. If the epidemic is small enough, doctors can provide respiratory support to the significant fraction of patients who develop complications, and relatively few will die. But once the number of critical patients exceeds the number of ventilators and ICU beds and other critical-care facilities, mortality rates spike.
* * * *
The experts are telling us that here in the United States, we can avoid hitting that threshold where sizable regions of the country will suddenly step into hell. We still have time to #flattenthecurve, as a popular infographic put it, slowing the spread so that the number of cases never exceeds what our health system can handle. The United States has an unusually high number of ICU beds, which gives us a head start. But we mustn’t squander that advantage through complacency.
So everyone needs to understand a few things.
First, the virus is here, and it is spreading quickly, even though everything looks normal. Right now, the United States has more reported cases than Italy had in late February. What matters isn’t what you can see but what you can’t: the patients who will need ICU care in two to six weeks.
Second, this is not “a bad flu.” It kills more of its hosts, and it will spread farther unless we take aggressive steps to slow it down, because no one is yet immune to this disease. It will be quite some time before the virus runs out of new patients.
Third, we can fight it. Despite early exposure, Singapore and Hong Kong have kept their caseloads low, not by completely shutting down large swaths of their economies as China did but through aggressive personal hygiene and “social distancing.” South Korea seems to be getting its initial outbreak under control using similar measures. If we do the same, we can not only keep our hospitals from overloading but also buy researchers time to develop vaccines and therapies.
Fourth, and most important: We are all in this together. It is your responsibility to keep America safe by following the CDC guidelines, just as much as it is House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s or President Trump’s responsibility to lead us to safety. And until this virus is beaten, we all need to act like it.
Despite thinking it might be good to catch the virus now before hospitals and services are overloaded I find myself avoiding people and washing my hands.
-------------------------------- Several people have eaten my cooking and survived.
Posts: 25685 | Location: Still living at 9000 feet in the High Rockies of Colorado | Registered: 20 April 2005
What we need to do goes beyond keeping people from getting it - we need to not swamp the healthcare system.
My daughter has a trip to NYC scheduled with 80 students the first week or April. Now administration is saying that probably won't happen. Getting the money back is going to be problematic and this type of situation will no doubt clog the courts for a while.
All the major Ohio universities are going to online instruction until April 12 at least. The public schools will be following suit.
The governor has already shut one large event down and will likely issue an order similar to Inslee's.
Is all this a good idea? I don't think anyone knows for sure. But we will know a lot more after we see if it is successful.
The Ohio status?
Confirmed Cases in Ohio: 3
Persons Under Investigation(PUIs)1 in Ohio: 15
Negative PUIs in Ohio: 14
-------------------------------- "A mob is a place where people go to get away from their conscience" Atticus Finch
Originally posted by Mikhailoh: What we need to do goes beyond keeping people from getting it - we need to not swamp the healthcare system.
This is so important for people to understand. I think there can be the perception that if anyone needs medical support, it will be there. Reality is that resources are limited and we could exceed capacity. Italy is the best example. And unlike the Chinese, I don't think we'd be capable of building 16 hospitals on the fly to increase capacity.
quote:
Is all this a good idea? I don't think anyone knows for sure. But we will know a lot more after we see if it is successful.
I've said this before here. It's like insurance. You hope that you're left wondering if your premium was well spent when you don't end up using the policy.
Far preferable to the alternative.
-------------------------------- We are all visitors to this time, this place. We are just passing through. Our purpose here is to observe, to learn, to grow, to love… and then we return home. - Australian Aboriginal proverb
Bazootiehead-in-training
Posts: 37817 | Location: Somewhere in the middle | Registered: 19 January 2010
