Trump is on his way out ...

One can only hope.

Can we just laugh at this?

quote:

But Professor Lichtman’s record goes much deeper. In 1980, he developed a presidential prediction model that retrospectively accounted for 120 years of U.S. election history.

And the whole idea of curve fitting some variables across a couple dozen elections and thinking you can predict the future?



But I sure hope he's right.

I couldn't stop laughing (quietly) as he intoned -- with a cryptic smile -- about this or that factor as true or false. Each factor was itself not always a simple yes/no choice. Well, "primary challenger" is binary, but even things like "third party" are in the eye of the beholder. And the economy stuff and "major policy change" are totally squishy.

But I do think he's onto something. I do feel that many people do vote based on emotion, not logic. Ultimately, I think his 13 keys are a way of predicting people's emotional response to the current societal situation, and the role of the incumbent (if they exist) in creating that. I found it interesting from a behavioral standpoint, and it's certainly no less accurate than the polls in predicting the last few presidential elections.