quote:

Originally posted by Cindysphinx:
Nah. There won’t be a vaccine tested, approved, and available. In sixty days?

I’ll bet only a small percentage of Americans will step up Trump rushed to market to help himself get re-elected.

I can already see a line of long-haired 50+ bleached blonds lining up for a shot, alongside MAGA-wearing dudes with a bulge that says "I'm packing heat".

I think whatever vaccine is churned out in time to make a difference in the election, getting a Trump endorsed shot will become a litmus test like mask -wearing, spelling loyalty to their Master. (And then there will be massive publicity in whatever time remains, publicizing their great good health. Probably will cure a cancer or two.)

That is, excluding the many Libertarians who seem to have embraced Trump.

Why would MAGA line up for a vaccine against an exaggerated hoax?

I'm seeing something interesting in the most recent polls, evident primarily in battleground states where Biden has narrow leads. Like PA, WI, MI.

Normally, Dems do better in polls of registered voters than likely voters. This makes sense -- by definition, registered voters are less likely to turn out than likely voters, and Republicans seem to be more consistent voters. So if Biden has a 10 point lead among registered voters, you'd expect to see maybe a 5 point lead among likely voters for the same state and time period.

Lately, I am seeing polls with, say, a Biden lead of 5 points for all adults; 6 points for registered voters; 7 points for likely voters. That is the opposite of what we normally see, and honestly, I've never seen it in prior elections.

I am trying to keep a clear head, but this suggests some very good things. It might mean that in the battleground states, the most reliable voters are highly engaged and are even more unhappy with trump than less informed and motivated voters. It also may mean that more of the Biden vote will come from likely (meaning experienced) voters who know how to put a ballot in the mail and perhaps don't have extra hurdles like having to produce a driver's license.

And it means I don't have to mentally chop any Biden polling leads in half to compensate for the normal pro-Republic shift you see in likely voter polling.

What do you think? Is there anything to this?

Cindy -- cautiously optimistic

My other encouraging thought is that, this time around, the governors in some of the critical swing states ... Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin ... are Democratic.

That doesn't necessarily mean the Secretary of State is Democratic, but it leaves less room for shenanigans.

And, if Mike Bloomberg really spends $100 million in Florida, that'll be more than both campaigns put together. If Biden wins Florida, it's tough to see what Trump's path to winning the electoral college is.

So, I am mildly encouraged, even though I know that Trump has a trifecta of October surprises (the Senate report on Biden/Burisma, the Durham report on the Russia investigation, and the vaccine) teed up and ready to go.

Yeah, it appears that absent a big change, this is coming down to PA. Biden looks likely to win Wisc and Mich. If he then wins PA and all of the other Hillary states, he doesn't need NC, FL or AZ to reach 270.

If Trump wins PA, then Biden will need one more state. FL or NC would do it, IIRC, but AZ would not. He'd have to find one more electoral vote from Maine or NE.

That said, one major tracking poll of nationwide LV is moving toward Trump a lot. Was something like +13 Biden. Now +6-7.

Right now, Mark Kelly has up to a 10-pt lead against the slimy, awful waste of air Martha McSally. Amazing if Arizona's two senators were both Dems. I'm not sure if that's ever happened before, unless it happened right around statehood.