I think it's more than flawed. It's quite political. The term reopening seems packed with meaning, much of which is probably wrong. A store owner turns out the lights and goes home. In the morning she comes in, unlocks the door, flips the switches, and reopens for the business day. Nothing fundamental has changed.

I think that's the political utility of the term reopening. It's designed to get people to believe that everything will go back to the wonderful way it was, and do so in short order. I don't think that will happen. Too many old economic relationships may have been broken. Many new chains will have formed. New tastes and behaviors may permanently displace old ones.

I would prefer another term, like "end the shutdown." What's the big difference between reopening something and ending its closure, you might ask.

"End the Shutdown" doesn't presume that restarting the economy is like flipping a switch and everything will return to the status quo ante. Ending the shutdown simply means we will begin to see the complex web of economic relationships slowly begin to knit together again, as people adapt to new opportunities and new constraints. What emerges may look quite different from what came before. We simply cannot tell at this point.

And "End the Shutdown" doesn't presume a quick path back to anything resembling normalcy. That's not what the administration wants to project with an election looming.

This strikes me as a potentially intriguing experiment in seeing the importance of path dependence arguments. We have rattled our economy in substantial ways, not in marginal and easily reversible increments. This isn't like a 20% rise in oil prices followed a few months later by a 12% fall. This shock may lead us into very new territory, rather than back where we were. We'll just have to wait and see.

Perhaps you’re putting too much faith in this Rebuplican administration and their most recent propaganda statement.

Best you ignore them like everyone else.

I think P*D makes an important point here. And because this terminology (reopen) is widely used by many, including news journalists, just ignoring the administration isn't the answer.

Yes, I think journalists must push back against this "reopening" terminology. Recognize how political it is, probe deeply into all the issues that may prevent an easy return to the old economy, and dig into why the process of ending the shutdown may be slow, complicated, and hard to forecast. Ask administration officials why they think it will be easy to restart things, and get them on the record making strong statements about the economy that will prove transparently wrong in six months time.

quote:

get them on the record making strong statements about the economy that will prove transparently wrong in six months time.

Yes, especially this!

I think your language may still be a little off the mark, PD.

The economy isn't shut down. I can go to Walmart or the grocery store. CVS is still open. I can meet with my doctor virtually, through a video appointment. I can order tons of things (although not hand sanitizer) through Amazon. My firm still has plenty of work to do. Believe it or not, corporate financings are still happening.

It's more like, in my view, getting back to full speed. If we imagine the economy as a car with a manual transmission, we are moving along, cautiously, through speed bumps and around barriers, in first gear. But we're moving. What we need to do is get past the speed bumps, get to a place where there are no barriers, and start shifting gears.

For most people, an unemployment rate not exceeded since the worst days of the Great Depression in 1932-33 qualifies as a "shut down," though I clearly take your point about precision.

The term here has meaning because this isn't the normal operation of the business cycle. We shut the economy down by fiat at the state level. No, not shut down 100%, but enough to make this an economic contraction not seen since the time of our grandparents. "Shut down" may have a touch of hyperbole, but I think it effectively captures the differences between what is taking place today and what has occurred in other economic contractions.

quote:

Originally posted by Piano*Dad:
For most people, an unemployment rate not exceeded since the worst days of the Great Depression in 1932-33 qualifies as a "shut down,"..

The economy is in very dangerous territory already and the pandemic has only started.

Incidentally, I wonder when the media will stop calling it "the novel coronavirus." It doesn't seem very novel at this point.

Isn't it the newest coronavirus?

Yes, it does't seem "new" anymore, but it actually is.

I've been thinking in terms of things like "unwinding the lockdown," which to me implies a thoughtful, staged process, not just "Voila! Everyone can go out now!"

I'm not in love with that term, either. But I agree, "reopening" is a poor term for this. Maybe "re-establishing"?

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Originally posted by markj:
Isn't it the newest coronavirus?

Yes, it does't seem "new" anymore, but it actually is.

Oh.