A 10 percent chance isn’t zero. And there’s a chance of a recount, too.
quote:
Before we proceed further, a short philosophical note. I hate it when people use phrases — to be fair, we often use phrases like these ourselves! — such as “Nate Silver is giving Biden a 90 percent chance” or “FiveThirtyEight still gives Trump a 10 percent chance.” We aren’t giving anybody anything. Instead, as former FiveThirtyEight politics host Jody Avrigan puts it, what we’re doing is “mapping uncertainty.” In other words, if Biden leads by about 9 points in national polls, 8 points in Wisconsin, 5 points in Pennsylvania, 2 points in Florida, etc., how does that translate into a probability of victory? That’s what our model is trying to figure out.
-------------------------------- We are all visitors to this time, this place. We are just passing through. Our purpose here is to observe, to learn, to grow, to love… and then we return home. - Australian Aboriginal proverb
Bazootiehead-in-training
Posts: 37873 | Location: Somewhere in the middle | Registered: 19 January 2010
Nate Silver, eh? I remember him from 2016 and am surprised he’s willing to show his face. He’s probably more responsible for our current situation than Comey.
Does anyone know who pays this guy?
-------------------------------- Life is short. Play with your dog.
Nate was closer in 2016 than all but a small number of pollsters. He gave Trump a larger chance of winning than everyone I can remember, except Rasmussen.
If you don’t like his opinions, nobody will force you to pay attention. However, he’s very well-respected.
This Nate is a really bright bunny, and he is absolutely correct here. RCP seems determined to gin up clicks by artificially showing a tightening. That's what you get when you add troll polls and subtract high quality polls in the days prior to the election.
Posts: 12529 | Location: Williamsburg, VA | Registered: 19 July 2005
