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Things you need to know, especially if you're in the market for a new car in the near future.

quote:
President Donald Trump on Friday threatened to place tariffs on all goods imported by the US from China in a major escalation of the burgeoning trade war between the two nations.

"I'm ready to go to 500," Trump said in an interview with CNBC's Joe Kernen that aired Friday morning. ,,,

His administration is considering tariffs of as much as 20% on US automobile imports from Europe. EU officials are readying a list of retaliatory tariffs that would be applied in response.


http://www.businessinsider.com...inese-imports-2018-7

quote:
If you've followed the recent trade talk from the White House, you know that threat of tariffs on imported cars looms large — everything from a 35 percent "big border tax" bandied about in 2017 to, more recently, a threat of 20 percent tariffs on cars imported from Europe. Those increases could cost shoppers an average of $5,800 per imported car, according to new claims by a trade group representing 11 major automakers.

Citing an analysis of U.S. Commerce Department data, the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers said Wednesday that a 25 percent import tariff would hit consumers shopping for imports with an average increase of nearly $6,000 per imported car. And it could affect nearly half the cars on the market.

A Cars.com analysis of Automotive News sales data from the first quarter of 2018 found only 53 percent of cars bought in the U.S. were also built in the U.S. — meaning 47 percent were imported. Should Trump impose tariffs (something he's allowed to do without Congress), it could impact the auto industry — and car shoppers — overnight.


quote:
Tariffs wouldn't just hit cars assembled outside the U.S., Dziczek said. They would hit imported parts of cars, even for models built in the U.S.

"They want to have more cars and parts made in the United States, and so our quick back-of-the-envelope thing was: Let's say you have a 90 percent U.S.[-built] car," she said. "You still have 10 percent content that's subject to the 25 percent tariff. And that eats a quarter to half of the profit margin."

Given that the auto industry isn't exactly known for high margins, such policy stands to hurt the core business for many automakers — and some may pass the expense on to consumers, especially because a 90 percent vehicle is purely theoretical. The American Automobile Labeling Act, a domestic-content labeling system, lists U.S. and Canadian content for all light-duty vehicles, and the highest content among government-listed 2018 models is 75 percent.

" The price of domestically built vehicles goes up not just because of demand [for U.S.-built cars] but because the price of the inputs are going up, " Dziczek said. "And there's not any 90 percent vehicles."

Indeed, higher duties on imported parts weren't part of AAM's $5,800-per-car analysis. But a 25 percent tariff on imported cars and foreign-sourced automotive parts would result in a 1.5 percent production decline and could cost nearly 200,000 U.S. jobs, the group warned.


https://www.cars.com/articles/...-cars-1420700504851/


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Posts: 22718 | Location: Somewhere in the middle | Registered: 19 January 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Originally posted by Amanda:
quote:
Originally posted by CHAS:
China and Mexico been buying a lot of soybeans and cotton for years.
Brazil and Australia will now be selling soybeans to China.
Mexico now has agreements with Argentina to buy soybeans and to buy other goods from Argentina.
I think China will get cotton from India and Australia.

Want to buy some soybeans? Prices are at the levels reached in 1965. Corn prices are at 1992 levels.


Whoah! Speaking from the POV of personal interest, I'm sure glad the greedy cousin farming my acreage in S.C. refused my request to pay me in a percent of profits (they've been
great in the last decade or so), rather than an annual fee as he has been. Soybeans and cotton are his main crops. (CHAS didn't mention it, but it seems to me, we sell a lot of cotton overseas too).

Nobody dares ask our Southern cousins how they last voted but a few seem most likely to have been Trumpists on account of how they expected decisions to benefit them economically. They already receive hundreds of thous $ annually in payouts (all this is online).

I think Southern farmers may be turning against him unless this qualifies them for some other insurance program.


JUST what I expected. Trump can't afford to lose his farmers. They're the heart and soul of his Southern base. Seems he just patches together a minimum voting bloc by spreading the payoffs as needed. (D'uh! I guess. Frowner)

Wonder if this means product dumping. Personally, I see a lot of cheap tofu coming!

12 billion for farmers to make up for tarrif losses


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Posts: 12252 | Location: PA | Registered: 20 April 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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General Motors Co. has become the highest-profile American company to fall victim to Donald Trump’s trade wars by cutting its profit forecast for this year on surging prices for steel and aluminum.

Adjusted earnings will drop to about $6 a share, down from a previous projection for as much as $6.50 a share, the Detroit-based company said Wednesday. Raw material costs probably will be a $1 billion headwind -- roughly double GM’s previous expectation. The carmaker’s shares are on course for their steepest one-day plunge in more than seven years.

The hit to GM’s profit underscores the risk that Donald Trump’s policies pose to automakers. While the U.S. president is moving to weaken fuel economy mandates, his tariffs on steel and aluminum -- and potentially on imported cars -- is undercutting what was shaping up to be a near-record year for an iconic American company that weeks ago was riding high on a $2.25 billion investment in its autonomous-driving unit.

GM had increased profit three years in a row, a streak punctuated by the record $6.62 a share earned last year. Record income in China, market share gains at home and strong results at its lending arm were positioning the company for more growth until those gains were spoiled by the surge in steel and aluminum prices linked to the U.S. slapping tariffs on the metals in June.

“Our execution continues to be strong,” Chief Financial Officer Chuck Stevens told reporters at GM’s headquarters. “We expect some of these headwinds to continue in the second half.”

GM shares dropped as much as 8.2 percent and were down 7.6 percent as of 11:01 a.m. in New York. That puts the stock on pace for the biggest decline since November 2011.


quote:
Trump’s tariffs aren’t all that’s eroding GM’s profit. The automaker said that net revenue sustained an $800 million hit in the quarter because consumers bought a less-lucrative mix of vehicles. A lot of that stems from the company’s pickups being in the last year before a revamp, and customers are taking advantage of deals and buying less loaded models.

The weakening of the Argentine peso and Brazilian real also hurt revenue by about $100 million. Commodities other than metals also are getting costlier.

“Yes, steel and aluminum are being impacted -- as well as oil-based commodities, copper, resins, diesel prices,” Stevens said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “Market forces” have been “much greater than we expected as we entered the year.”



https://www.bloomberg.com/news...-prices-boosts-costs


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Posts: 22718 | Location: Somewhere in the middle | Registered: 19 January 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Farmers like me put Trump in office. Now his trade war is smothering us.

China needs to be punished for stealing patented U.S. technology. This is not the right approach.


President Trump is considering expanding tariffs to apply to $500 billion worth of Chinese imports. This move would double the level of tariffs that Trump recently imposed on Chinese goods. It would apply to nearly all of China’s exports to the United States.

To mitigate tariff damage to U.S. farmers, who are already facing rising input costs and reduced export markets, the Trump administration announced Tuesday that it would extend them $12 billion in aid.

I am a farmer and a Trump supporter. I agree that China needs to be punished for stealing patented U.S. technology. But opening a new front in this trade war, while trying to reduce the blowback on farmers with a Great Depression-era transfer program, is not the right approach. It is the economic equivalent of treating a hangnail by cutting off your finger.

As Trump’s aid package tacitly admits, tariffs hit farmers especially hard. With farmers already facing economic head winds, including oversupply and drought, I predict that even with this aid, expanded tariffs would be the breaking point that puts some farmers out of business entirely. As the history of the Great Depression demonstrates, such federal and bureaucratic farm-support programs rarely compensate for the full burden of a trade war, while usually ushering in unintended consequences that distort the farm economy.

Farmers use a lot of steel, which Trump subjected to a 25 percent tariff in March. Combines, grain bins, fencing and cattle gating, which we are constantly upgrading and replacing, have become significantly more expensive as steel prices have jumped markedly because of the tariffs. This has taken a painful bite out of our already-slim profit margins.

Yet the most significant consequence of tariffs for farmers has been the inevitable tariff retaliation from trading partners, which reduces our export opportunities. For instance, China has targeted soybeans and hogs with steep retaliatory tariffs. These farm products are popular in China and fixtures on Midwest farms.

More than one-third of U.S. soybeans, the second-biggest crop in the nation, goes to China — about $12.4 billion worth. Since May, soybean prices have dipped about $2 per bushel to about $8.50 as export markets have dried up. For every dollar lower a bushel, farmers lose about 10 percent of their revenue.

Meanwhile, pork exports to China are down nearly 20 percent this year. China is an especially valuable market for pork farmers because it purchases the lower-value portions of the hogs, such as the tongue and ears, that are difficult to sell elsewhere. As a result of the limited export markets, meat is piling up in U.S. cold-storage warehouses. Since May, prices of lean hog futures have fallen by 14 percent.

Many of Trump’s farmer supporters like me are holding out hope that these tariffs are part of a grand strategy to reduce trade barriers for U.S. exporters. But with each passing day, and each new tariff, we get more nervous. Surely there is a less destructive way to hold China accountable for its intellectual property offenses without limiting U.S. export opportunities. This is where we could use a president who “makes great deals.”

Congress should rally behind potential legislation by Sen. Orrin G. Hatch (R-Utah) that would give lawmakers more say in U.S. tariff policy, in line with the U.S. Constitution. This will give elected representatives from American manufacturing and farming communities an opportunity to make their voices heard and deliver the message that farmers want trade, not aid. It should be one of the few pieces of legislation in this politicized environment that garner bipartisan support. Such legislation would also return tariff power to Congress, whose enumerated powers under the Constitution include the “Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises.”

Until then, Trump must listen to his manufacturing and farming constituents who put him in office and pursue trade agreements that help us increase our gross and net earnings without corporate welfare. That starts with shelving plans to open a new front in the trade war with China.

Kalena Bruce Kalena Bruce, a fifth generation rancher living in Stockton, Mo., operates a commercial ranch.


https://www.washingtonpost.com...m_term=.6e60dd2bac6f


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Posts: 22718 | Location: Somewhere in the middle | Registered: 19 January 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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a friend is calling Trump supporters Trump Sniffers.
I like that.


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Posts: 20310 | Location: Still living at 9000 feet in the High Rockies of Colorado | Registered: 20 April 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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$12 Billion for soybean farmers.

How much are the car companies going to get?


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Posts: 26510 | Location: Yorba Linda, CA | Registered: 23 April 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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China’s trade surplus with the U.S. hit another record monthly high in August as the world’s second-largest economy faced the threat of more tariffs from the Trump administration.

China’s trade surplus with the U.S. widened to $31.05 billion last month from $28.09 billion in July, while its total trade surplus narrowed, data from the General Administration of Customs showed Saturday.

The data came as Washington prepared to roll out a third round of tariffs, moving it closer toward imposing levies on virtually all Chinese goods entering the U.S.

A combination of factors, including a weaker Chinese yuan and exporters’ frontloading of shipments in anticipation of more tariffs, contributed to the worsening trade imbalance, said Liu Xuezhi, an economist with Bank of Communications.

“In the short term, it is difficult for the trade gap to narrow because American buyers cannot easily find alternatives to Chinese products,” Mr. Liu said.

That suggests that the trade dispute, which is escalating, won’t be resolved quickly, the Shanghai-based economist said.

The yuan slid nearly 9% against the U.S. dollar between April and July, but was little changed in August, according to Wind Information. Last month, China’s central bank stepped up its intervention in the market to prevent the yuan from depreciating too rapidly.

A weaker yuan makes Chinese goods cheaper for U.S. consumers. China’s exports to the U.S. rose 13.2% in August from a year earlier, accelerating from an 11.2% increase in July, according to calculations by The Wall Street Journal based on customs data.

President Trump said Friday the administration is ready to announce tariffs on another $267 billion in Chinese goods, on top of levies on $200 billion of Chinese products it has been preparing.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/c...ew-record-1536397753


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Posts: 22718 | Location: Somewhere in the middle | Registered: 19 January 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Hard to keep up with all the winning.

quote:
Jack Ma, founder and chairman of Chinese retail giant Alibaba, says the company no longer plans to create 1 million jobs in the United States in the wake of the ongoing trade conflict between the U.S. and China.

Ma made his original job creation pronouncement during a high-profile meeting with Donald Trump in January 2017 before Trump's inauguration as president.

"The promise was made on the premise of friendly US-China partnership and rational trade relations," Ma told Chinese news site Xinhua on Wednesday. "That premise no longer exists today, so our promise cannot be fulfilled."


https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/...million-us-jobs.html


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Posts: 22718 | Location: Somewhere in the middle | Registered: 19 January 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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At least the businesses got a huge tax break earlier this year. Consumers are screwed.

quote:
Walmart, the largest US retailer, is sounding the alarm on President Donald Trump's trade war, saying it is "very concerned" about the impacts the newly announced tariffs may have on American consumers.

In a letter to US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer seen by Business Insider, the company — which employs 2.3 million people worldwide, including 1.5 million in the US — said the immediate impact of the fresh tariffs "will be to raise prices on consumers and tax American business and manufacturers."

"As the largest retailer in the United States and a major buyer of U.S. manufactured goods, we are very concerned about the impacts these tariffs would have on our business, our customers, our suppliers and the U.S. economy as a whole," Walmart wrote.

The letter — sent about two weeks ago — Walmart asked Lighthizer and the Trump administration to reconsider putting tariffs on Chinese-made consumer goods including Christmas lights, shampoo, dog food, luggage, mattresses, handbags, backpacks, vacuum cleaners, bicycles, cooking grills, cable cords, and air conditioners.

The letter did not achieve that goal, with the administration pushing forward earlier this week with the imposition of tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, affecting more than 5,000 products. When those tariffs are implemented, tariffs, which function as taxes, will have been imposed on roughly half of US imports from China as part of the Trump administration's move to pressure China into changing some of its trade practices.


https://www.businessinsider.co...almart-letter-2018-9


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Another round imminent?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news...dialogue-breaks-down


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“To the extent one wants to call this a trade war, we are determined to win it.”


I've heard that these trade wars are "easy to win".

We shall see.


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Posts: 26510 | Location: Yorba Linda, CA | Registered: 23 April 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Local races leveraging impacts of tariffs.

quote:
The economic fallout from Trump’s skirmishes with China, Canada, Mexico and the European Union risk making an already tough cycle for Republicans even more brutal, giving Democrats a chance to peel away voters linked to influential industries — like Washington state cherry farmers and Tennessee bourbon makers — who have long supported business-friendly Republicans.

“Where you have real-world effects of the trade war, you see people’s opinions sour dramatically,” said Scott Lincicome, a trade lawyer and adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute who is studying the links between public opinion and trade. “You look at places like Washington state where people are dependent on exporting cherries and apples, or rust belt states that border Canada, or Tennessee with auto and bourbon makers, and you are going to see close races where this is actually a decisive issue.”


quote:
Economists expect that to translate into higher prices for consumers across the country and special pain for low-to-middle-income voters who make up much of Trump’s base — and are least able to absorb increased costs for consumer goods from air conditioners to clothing and furniture. Republicans are counting on getting Trump supporters to the polls in November to hold off projected Democratic gains in the House and potentially the Senate. Forcing consumers to pay higher prices could make that harder.

“If you are kind of in the middle- or lower-income groups, you are buying a lot of what economists call tradable goods and you’ll be hit a lot harder,” said Kyle Handley, assistant professor of business economics and public policy at the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business. “This is basically the Trump voter who is going to see the biggest hit to their total spending.”

Evidence is already piling up that consumers and businesses are growing increasingly nervous about Trump’s trade policy.

Consumer sentiment measured by the University of Michigan dropped last month to its lowest point in nearly a year, with the decline centered in lower-income households most sensitive to higher prices. The sentiment index ticked up again in preliminary results for September. But nearly a third of those surveyed cited concern over tariffs when assessing the economy.

A survey of chief financial officers unveiled last week by Deloitte LLP found that just 42 percent said business conditions would improve next year, the lowest in two years, with executives “overwhelmingly worried” about trade policy and tariffs.


quote:
Democrats are seizing on the trade issue in close House and Senate races across the country, such as in Tennessee for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Republican Bob Corker. Democratic nominee Phil Bredesen, the former governor, is locked in a tight race with GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn in what otherwise might be a safe seat for the party. Bredesen has repeatedly hammered away at Trump’s tariffs, which are hitting the state’s large automotive, hog farming and bourbon industries.

Blackburn, a strong Trump supporter, has been critical of the president’s trade policies but stopped short of demanding that Congress take away Trump’s tariff authority. A newly formed pro-trade effort called “Tariffs Hurt the Heartland” held a town hall in Nashville last week to highlight what they say is the negative impact of Trump’s policies on Tennessee businesses.

Democratic incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota recently ran an ad with soybean farmers talking about the “hundreds of millions” of dollars in lost sales to China. Democrats are also pressing the trade issue especially hard in competitive Senate races in Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana and even Nebraska, generally viewed as a safe GOP seat, according to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

The same holds true in House races in competitive districts that rely heavily on exports. In Washington state’s 8th district, which crosses the Cascade mountains, Democratic nominee Dr. Kim Schrier is ripping the tariff impact on the state’s apple and cherry farmers in the race to replace retiring GOP Rep. Dave Reichert. Democrats have never won the seat.

“It’s just a huge issue here and we are really feeling this heavily; nearly everything that Washington exports faces a 5 to 25 percent tariff,” said Katie Rodihan, communications director for Schrier. “Kim’s point is we really need comprehensive trade agreements and we should never be in this situation where we get spontaneous trade policy via tweet.”


https://www.politico.com/story...de-wars-china-801315


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Steel and aluminum tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have cost Ford Motor Co (F.N) about $1 billion in profits, its chief executive officer said on Wednesday, while Honda Motor Co (7267.T) said higher steel prices have brought “hundreds of millions of dollars” in new costs.

“From Ford’s perspective the metals tariffs took about $1 billion in profit from us,” CEO James Hackett said at a Bloomberg conference in New York, “The irony of which is we source most of that in the U.S. today anyway. If it goes on any longer, it will do more damage.”

Hackett did not specify what period the $1 billion covered, but a spokesman said the automaker’s CEO was referring to internal forecasts at Ford for higher tariff-related costs in 2018 and 2019.

Higher U.S. steel prices have resulted in “hundreds of millions of dollars” in additional annual costs, Rick Schostek, executive vice president of Honda North America, told the U.S. Senate Finance Committee, even as more than 90 percent of steel in its vehicles assembled in the United States is made domestically.

Honda also faces retaliatory tariffs from Canada and China on lawn-mowers it builds in North Carolina and transmissions made in Georgia.

Honda has not boosted U.S. vehicle prices as a result of the higher costs but the issue is “certainly part of our thinking as we go forward,” Schostek told reporters after the hearing.


quote:
IHS Markit estimates that full implementation of the 232 tariffs would add between $1,800 and $5,700 to a new vehicle’s price tag and cut new auto sales by around 2.2 million units in 2020 as well as slice total sales to as little as 14.5 million units from expectations of 17 million vehicles this year.

The new tariffs would also cost around 300,000 in auto-related jobs in factories and dealerships across the country, and slash U.S. economic growth by 1.1 percentage points to 2.2 percent, IHS said.

In July Ford lowered its full-year earnings forecast due to slumping sales and trade tariffs on China as well as its struggling business in Europe.

The automaker’s difficulties in boosting sales in China have showed no signs of ending despite taking steps to bring new products to market.


https://www.reuters.com/articl...d-jobs-idUSKCN1M60E0


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“From Ford’s perspective the metals tariffs took about $1 billion in profit from us,” CEO James Hackett said at a Bloomberg conference in New York, “The irony of which is we source most of that in the U.S. today anyway


Someone please explain to me why US steel mfgr's raised their prices as a result of the tariffs, which is how I read the above statement.


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Because they can?

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Reduced competition from imported steel has allowed domestic producers such as US Steel to raise the prices of their American-made products.


https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/...s-tariffs/index.html


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