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The Nail-Biting, Bed-Wetting Early Vote Tracker Thread
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Minor Deity
Picture of Cindysphinx
posted
So far, Dems are returning ballots at a higher rate than Republicans in battleground states.

And black voters and Latino voters are voting early at higher rates than in 2016.

* * *

Georgia

Voters in the Peach State have also more than doubled their ballot returns compared to this time in 2016.
Of CNN's most competitive states with race data available, Georgia currently has the smallest share of ballots cast by White voters. Georgia also has the largest share of ballots cast by Black voters, a key Democratic voting bloc, among those key states.
Black voters have cast a greater share of pre-Election Day votes this cycle compared to this point in 2016, representing over 35% of those early ballots now, up from 29% four years ago. White voters have cast a smaller share of ballots ahead of the election, dropping from 68% in 2016 to 58% currently.

North Carolina

Ballot returns in North Carolina are more than 9 times larger than this point in 2016.
Black voters make up a larger share of those who have already cast ballots than they did at this point four years ago. 17% of ballots cast have come from Black voters, compared to just 9% at this point four years ago.
Meanwhile, White voters' share of the ballots cast has dropped roughly 10 percentage points -- from 86% four years ago at this time to 76% now.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/12...tion-2020/index.html
 
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George Will
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Which means a small army of Democratic operatives and lawyers must be present when ballots are opened and judged. The GOP must not be allowed free rein to differentially challenge minority ballots.
 
Posts: 9997 | Location: Williamsburg, VA | Registered: 19 July 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Minor Deity
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Interestingly, no one at the polls can be sure that a mailed or dropped off ballot came from a minority voter. The potential for race-based disenfranchisement is actually lower.
 
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Minor Deity
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Posts: 19079 | Location: A cluttered house in Metro D.C. | Registered: 20 April 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Minor Deity
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Posts: 19079 | Location: A cluttered house in Metro D.C. | Registered: 20 April 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
"The nation’s floundering government is now administered by a gangster regime."

George Will
Beatification Candidate
Picture of Piano*Dad
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Cindysphinx:
Interestingly, no one at the polls can be sure that a mailed or dropped off ballot came from a minority voter. The potential for race-based disenfranchisement is actually lower.


Zip ... Code.
 
Posts: 9997 | Location: Williamsburg, VA | Registered: 19 July 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Minor Deity
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Zip code isn't a perfect proxy for race. I live in a white area, and latest available information says I'm black.

But when a minority voter shows up at the polls, the potential for disenfranchisement based on race is higher. Right?
 
Posts: 19079 | Location: A cluttered house in Metro D.C. | Registered: 20 April 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
"The nation’s floundering government is now administered by a gangster regime."

George Will
Beatification Candidate
Picture of Piano*Dad
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No, actually. I think it's much easier to disenfranchise people impersonally. We know that mail in ballots are challenged at a much higher rate than in-person voters. The GOP can just play the odds and let a black ballot like yours through by letting your high-income zip code (or address) get a pass while challenging every missing signature curlicue from zip codes with a substantial voting base of low-income people.
 
Posts: 9997 | Location: Williamsburg, VA | Registered: 19 July 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Minor Deity
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On another note . . .

My sister in Colorado was contacted by a pollster. Rasmussen, which is a Republican-leaning pollster.


Sister was about to delete the text, but then she got curious and decided to take the poll.

She said it seemed to be "legitimate," in that it was an actual poll rather than a push poll designed to make voters believe various theories (E.g. "Joe biden is very, very old. How concerned are you that he will die really soon and that witch Kamala harris will take over with her far-left policies?).

Anyway, sis said the poll was very skewed. She remembered one question was something like, "How do you feel about mask wearing?" But the answers ranged from "I refuse to wear a mask" to "I take my mask off as soon as possible when leaving a store and try to avoid wearing it in a store whenever I can." There was nothing more mask-tolerant than that, like "I wear a mask to protect myself and others."

So, I guess that explains why Rasmussen has a Republican lean.

I've never been contacted by a pollster. Ahem.
 
Posts: 19079 | Location: A cluttered house in Metro D.C. | Registered: 20 April 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Minor Deity
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quote:
Originally posted by Piano*Dad:
No, actually. I think it's much easier to disenfranchise people impersonally. We know that mail in ballots are challenged at a much higher rate than in-person voters. The GOP can just play the odds and let a black ballot like yours through by letting your high-income zip code (or address) get a pass while challenging every missing signature curlicue from zip codes with a substantial voting base of low-income people.


But . . . you're assuming that a partisan poll observer challenging a mail-in ballot gets to see the zip code of the voter when making the challenge. Is that the case?

And . . . if you want to prevent minorities from voting, wouldn't it make more sense to put poll observers at polling places in minority areas and then challenge every minority who shows up, while letting whites skip through to the polls? Isn't that how Justice Rehnquist did it back in the day? Not only can you challenge people based on the actual color of their skin rather than zip code, you can create a long line at the polling place because of your challenges, which will discourage minorities who don't want to wait in the line. See, that's how Rehnquist did it; he was a pro.
https://apnews.com/article/499...5e4720aacaa008491969

I'm starting to think you don't have much personal experience in disenfranchising minorities, which I will say is a good thing. Big Grin
 
Posts: 19079 | Location: A cluttered house in Metro D.C. | Registered: 20 April 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Has Achieved Nirvana
Picture of QuirtEvans
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The pictures of the early voting lines today in Georgia are absurd. There are people in Marietta who got on line at 8AM and voted at 8PM. They stuck it out, early voting, for TWELVE HOURS.

There is a group that is dedicated to providing food to people who are waiting on line to vote. Brilliant idea. If only they could bring Porta-Potties, too.
 
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Minor Deity
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Good lord. Why not just vote by mail or drop box?
 
Posts: 19079 | Location: A cluttered house in Metro D.C. | Registered: 20 April 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Minor Deity
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quote:
Originally posted by QuirtEvans:
The pictures of the early voting lines today in Georgia are absurd. There are people in Marietta who got on line at 8AM and voted at 8PM. They stuck it out, early voting, for TWELVE HOURS.

There is a group that is dedicated to providing food to people who are waiting on line to vote. Brilliant idea. If only they could bring Porta-Potties, too.


Whichever candidate they favor (how do they lean?) I certainly give them infinite credit.

Looks like there at least, the "VOTE" message has gotten across. Now I wonder how typical that is and how much a function of their demographics.

Around here (Centre County PA) they've changed our polling stations for the first time since I moved here 30+ years ago. They say it's because of COVID - the need to allow for social distancing.

Say, that line in Marietta - were they keeping their distance (and mayhaps also wearing masks)?


--------------------------------
The most dangerous word in the language is "obvious"

 
Posts: 13079 | Location: PA | Registered: 20 April 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Minor Deity
Picture of Amanda
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Also wondering if employees would get the whole day off, paid. Also whether polling stations were altered according to probable demographics - kind of a last minute gerrymandering, to minimize certain voters. I can well imagine there would be quite a heavy drop off in numbers according to various factors.

Curious about how many would-be voters didn't stick it out, and who they were intending to vote for.


--------------------------------
The most dangerous word in the language is "obvious"

 
Posts: 13079 | Location: PA | Registered: 20 April 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
"The nation’s floundering government is now administered by a gangster regime."

George Will
Beatification Candidate
Picture of Piano*Dad
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Cindysphinx:
Good lord. Why not just vote by mail or drop box?


Indeed.

We have in-person early voting in VA (as you know). It was a snap. Easier than on election day. And no problems like with mail-in ballots not being counted for days. These results should be in on election day.
 
Posts: 9997 | Location: Williamsburg, VA | Registered: 19 July 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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